[Local Elections D-15] ① Three Keywords That Will Decide the Outcome: ‘Judgment, Mistakes, and Consolidation’

The Biggest Issue of the Election: "Lee Jaemyung"

Editor's NoteThe June 3rd local elections are just fifteen days away. This election not only selects grassroots officials who will lead local governments and councils for the next four years, but also serves as a referendum on the Lee Jaemyung administration, which is marking its first year in power. Unlike the elections held four years ago immediately after the presidential election, this year's vote takes place one year after martial law, impeachment, and a change in government. Key issues to watch include whether the Democratic Party, which has consecutively won both the parliamentary and presidential elections, can also secure local power, and whether the People Power Party, which held local power four years ago, can find a foothold for a comeback. The Asia Business Daily examines the major variables and dynamics at play in this local election during the official campaign period.

The keywords that will determine the outcome of the local elections between the ruling and opposition parties are 'judgment, mistakes, and consolidation.' The key factors are whether public sentiment leans toward 'stability of state affairs and clearing up insurrection' or toward 'judgment on the administration,' and how effectively each camp minimizes last-minute errors and consolidates its base of supporters.

◆Judgment Election=This local election takes place against a timeline that includes the December 3 Martial Law, impeachment, the snap presidential election, and the launch of the Lee Jaemyung administration. The outcome is expected to be determined by whether the wind of judgment blows in favor of the Democratic Party's advocacy for national stability and clearing up the aftermath of insurrection, or in favor of the opposition parties' call for judgment on the administration.

The race, which began with the ruling party in the lead thanks to President Lee Jaemyung's high approval ratings, is gradually becoming more competitive. According to a poll conducted by Gallup Korea from the 12th to the 14th, 44% of respondents said "the ruling party's candidates should win more seats," while 33% favored "opposition party candidates." The gap has narrowed by 6 percentage points compared to the average in March and April.

This shift is interpreted as the opposition's narrative of judgment on the administration gaining traction, due to issues such as the special prosecutor on withdrawal of prosecution and real estate controversies. The People Power Party has continued to push key issues through the final stages of the campaign, including establishing a special committee to block the special prosecutor on withdrawal of prosecution on this day.

However, as the opposition has failed to draw a clear line on the issue of martial law, the ruling party's stance on clearing up the aftermath of insurrection has not lost momentum. Jang Donghyuk, leader of the People Power Party, recently stated, "There may be differing perspectives on the phenomena and outcomes that have emerged in Korean society since martial law," adopting an ambiguous position. The so-called pro-Yoon nominations are also fueling controversy.

This remains a contentious issue.

Officials from the Seoul Metropolitan Election Commission are conducting a promotional campaign by operating an unmanned airship at Yeouido Hangang Park in Seoul on the 18th to encourage participation in the 9th nationwide simultaneous local elections. 2026.5.18 Photo by Hyunmin Kim

Political commentator Park Sangbyung said, "The biggest keyword in this election is Lee Jaemyung. All issues—including the December 3 Martial Law, livelihood, and external factors—are encompassed by the keyword Lee Jaemyung, and the administration is responding well to these, which is strengthening the argument for national stability." On the other hand, Kim Hyungjun, Distinguished Professor at Paichai University, said, "The 2030 generation, who are swing voters, have moved beyond anger over martial law," adding, "Economic and fairness issues such as real estate and the special prosecutor on withdrawal of prosecution are the variables."

◆Managing Mistakes=In past elections, verbal gaffes have often been decisive blows. In the 6th local elections held in 2014, the then-ruling Saenuri Party suffered from the aftermath of the so-called "the public is uncivilized" remark. In this election, Democratic Party's Standing Campaign Committee Chair Jeong Cheongrae recently stirred controversy by telling a child during a campaign in Buk-gu Gap, Busan, to "try calling me oppa." Kim Yongbeom, policy chief at the Blue House, also faced unintended controversy over his proposal for a "national dividend."

The opposition is not free from slip-ups either. Park Hyungjun, the People Power Party's candidate for Busan mayor, was previously criticized for making crude remarks about lawmaker Kim Yeji, who has a disability, and for appearing on the channel of a YouTuber known for supporting the December 3 Martial Law. Professor Kim said, "The three variables that influence the centrist vote are the reform-mindedness, morality, and rhetoric of the candidates," adding, "Verbal gaffes and mistakes can be significant variables for undecided centrist swing voters, even until the end."

◆Where Will Consolidation Occur?=The ultimate turning point will be the level of consolidation within each camp. According to the Gallup Korea survey, 77% of progressives expected the ruling party's candidates to win a majority, while only 59% of conservatives expected the same. Among centrists, the ruling party led the opposition by 46% to 30%. Political commentator Lee Jonghun said, "Most of each camp's base has consolidated, and even the centrists have almost made up their minds," adding, "The remaining variable is the degree of candidate unification in each region."

However, some point to differences in recent poll results between telephone interviews and automated response systems (ARS) as evidence of possible consolidation among so-called "shy conservatives." An opposition party lawmaker said, "It's become a contestable situation, but not all supporters have been mobilized yet," adding, "We need to bring indifferent supporters to the polls."

Experts believe last-minute consolidation will determine the outcome. Commentator Park said, "Shy supporters are gradually showing up in opinion polls," adding, "The key is the centrist group." Hong Hyungsik, head of Hangil Research, stated, "If voter turnout stays in the 50-55% range, it will favor the ruling party, but if it surpasses 60%, it will be advantageous for the opposition."

The opinion poll cited in this article was conducted through telephone interviews with 1,011 respondents nationwide, with a response rate of 12.5% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.