Busan Mayoral Election, Polls Show 'Neck-and-Neck Race Within Margin of Error'

Variation Seen Depending on Polling Method and Response Rate

"Clear Trend of Narrowing Gap Between Candidates"

The Busan mayoral election is showing signs of turning into a close race.

According to a compilation of recent major opinion polls, the gap in support between Jeon Jae-soo, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, and Park Hyung-joon, the candidate from the People Power Party, is narrowing, with some surveys reporting results within the margin of error. Variations in results are also observed depending on the polling methods and response rates.

In a poll conducted by Yeoronchosakkot on April 13–14 among 1,004 Busan voters (100% ARS, response rate 7.4%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Jeon received 48.7% support while Park received 38.7%.

In a subsequent poll by the same organization conducted on April 28–29 among 1,002 respondents (mobile phone interviews, response rate 13.5%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points), Jeon garnered 49.8% support while Park's support stood at 28.5%, widening the gap.

A survey commissioned by KBS and conducted by Korea Research (mobile phone interviews) also showed Jeon leading through mid-April. In the April 17–19 poll of 1,000 respondents (response rate 20.5%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points), Jeon had 40% and Park 34%. In another poll conducted April 25–27 among 800 respondents (response rate 18.0%, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points), Jeon received 42% and Park 32%.

However, polls conducted after late April indicate a narrowing gap. In a Korea Research International poll commissioned by MBC (April 28–29, mobile phone interviews, 800 respondents, response rate 21.0%, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points), Jeon received 48% while Park garnered 34%.

In a subsequent poll conducted by Hankil Research at the request of Busan MBC (May 1–2, 100% ARS, 1,013 respondents, response rate 6.9%, margin of error ±3.5 percentage points), Jeon had 46.9% while Park had 40.7%, indicating a tight race within the margin of error.

A similar trend was observed in a Barometer Opinion Research poll commissioned by Korea Eagle News (100% ARS). In the survey conducted April 25–26 among 1,010 respondents (response rate 6.5%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points), Jeon recorded 43.9% and Park 39.2%. In the May 3–4 survey of 1,042 respondents (response rate 6.7%, margin of error ±3.0 percentage points), Jeon's support was 44.2% while Park's reached 41.0%, further narrowing the gap.

Experts explain that it is premature to determine a frontrunner when poll results fall within the margin of error. They also pointed out that volatility in results may arise from differences in polling methods (ARS or phone interviews) and response rates.

As the election approaches, the possibility of shifts in the race is expected to increase due to the movement of undecided voters and the influence of emerging issues. Detailed information on these opinion polls can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

Busan City Hall.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.