IEA: "March LNG Output Down 8%... Supply Shortage Expected Next Year"

"Impact Will Not Be Limited to Short-Term Supply Disruptions"

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on April 24 (local time) that ongoing turmoil in the international natural gas market caused by the war in the Middle East is expected to result in continued supply shortages through next year.

The IEA, headquartered in Paris, France, predicted this in its latest quarterly liquefied natural gas (LNG) report released on the same day, noting that large-scale supply shocks are disrupting market fundamentals and delaying the anticipated supply of new LNG.

Qatar's LNG facility. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

According to the IEA, unprecedented uncertainty has arisen since early last month as maritime transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, causing approximately 20% of global LNG supply to disappear from the market.

Last month, global LNG production decreased by 8% year-on-year (equivalent to 4 billion cubic meters), and as supply chain disruptions began to spread worldwide, LNG deliveries also declined. For the first 20 days of this month, LNG deliveries were down by 10% (equivalent to 3 billion cubic meters) compared to the same period last year.

The IEA forecasts that the impact of the current Middle East war will not be limited to short-term supply disruptions but will also continue in the medium term. In addition to transportation issues through the Strait of Hormuz, anticipated increases in supply have diminished as related infrastructure in Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, has been damaged.

The IEA projected that if it takes four years to restore Qatar’s LNG facilities, the country’s LNG production could decrease by about 70 billion cubic meters by 2030. Due to these factors, the cumulative reduction in LNG supply is expected to reach approximately 120 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.