"Foreign Tourist Boom Expected from BTS Concert... Retail Sector 'Overweight' Maintained"

Daishin Securities Picks Shinsegae as Top Pick

"Foreign Visitor Numbers Expected to Continue Hitting All-Time Highs"

Daishin Securities has maintained its "Overweight" investment opinion on the retail sector, expecting the number of foreign visitors to Korea to continue hitting all-time highs ahead of the BTS (Bangtan Sonyeondan) concert to be held at Gwanghwamun on March 21. With foreign consumption also projected to surge, the company identified Shinsegae as the top beneficiary among the three major domestic department store groups.

Yoo Junghyun, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated in a report titled "Come See the BTS Concert!" released on March 19, "A large number of foreigners are expected to visit Korea to see the BTS concert, fueling expectations for a tourism boom at nearby hotels, department stores, and other businesses."

On March 16, a road closure notice was installed at Gwanghwamun Square in Jongno-gu, Seoul, ahead of the full-group comeback performance of BTS. 2026.3.16 Photo by Kang Jinhyung

First, Yoo highlighted, "Reports indicate that around 260,000 people are expected to gather for the upcoming BTS concert," adding, "The number of foreign visitors to Korea is projected to continue breaking previous records." Last year, the number of foreign arrivals reached approximately 19 million, the highest ever, marking a full recovery that surpassed the pre-pandemic figure of 17.3 million in 2019.

He noted, "As the number of foreign entrants increases significantly, their domestic spending is also rising," and added, "Last year, foreign visitors’ credit card spending in Korea hit an all-time high of 20 trillion won (about 14.1 billion dollars), accounting for 3.0% of the nation’s total retail sales of 655 trillion won." He further estimated that when including various payment services and cash transactions, the actual share of foreign consumption in Korea’s domestic retail market would be even greater.

In particular, Yoo pointed out that in Japan, where the recovery of inbound tourists was faster than in Korea, the domestic retail market growth rate from 2022 to 2024 far outpaced GDP growth due to a surge in foreign visitors. He explained, "Major department stores saw dramatic improvements in performance as foreign sales soared, leading to a three- to four-fold increase in department store stocks between 2022 and 2024," and added, "The Korean department store industry is currently experiencing a situation very similar to Japan’s about two years ago."

He also mentioned that the depreciation of the won has made shopping in Korea more attractive to foreigners, diagnosing, "Department stores are now shedding their limited role as channels exclusively for domestic consumption, and are establishing themselves as key inbound beneficiary channels by providing valuable shopping experiences to foreign visitors."

In line with this, Yoo maintained an "Overweight" investment opinion on the retail sector and singled out Shinsegae as the department store expected to benefit the most from inbound tourism among the three major domestic players. He also cited Hyundai Department Store and Lotte Shopping as secondary preferences. The target prices suggested by Daishin Securities for the three companies are 4.1 million won, 1.45 million won, and 1.15 million won, respectively.

Yoo assessed, "The differences among the three companies mainly boil down to whether they have large stores in areas most visited by foreigners, such as Myeongdong and Busan, and whether their subsidiaries’ performance is improving in tandem. However, from the perspective of domestic consumption recovery and inbound beneficiary channels, there are no fundamental differences."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.