"More Listings Expected Even After Capital Gains Tax Hike... Housing Price Rebound Unlikely"

Korea Real Estate Board Price Survey

Higher Capital Gains Taxes to Be Implemented on May 10

Significant Rise in Listings with Lower Asking Prices

Previously Resilient Areas See Declines First

Little Chance of Demand Catching Up

As the decline in apartment prices in Seoul’s three Gangnam districts spreads to surrounding areas, there is growing interest in whether this will lead to a citywide drop in housing prices. Given that the government has announced plans to push for strong policies under the banner of “normalizing the real estate market,” forecasts are gaining credibility that prices will remain weak even after the implementation of higher capital gains taxes on May 10, 2026.

Changing Patterns: Gangnam Used to Rise First and Fall Last

According to statistics from the Korea Real Estate Board on March 13, 2026, apartment prices in certain areas have turned downward since the beginning of the year. Notably, areas such as the Gangnam region—which previously managed to “defend” prices relatively well—are now seeing declines first. Traditionally, the three Gangnam districts (Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa) would be the first to rise and the last to fall, but this time, the pattern is different.

In the Korea Real Estate Board’s weekly apartment price trend survey, Gangnam-gu recorded a 0.13% decrease in the second week of March, marking three consecutive weeks of decline. Seocho-gu, Songpa-gu, and Yongsan-gu also experienced declines for three straight weeks, albeit to varying degrees. Gangdong-gu, which is classified as part of Seoul’s southeastern region along with the three Gangnam districts, also shifted to a downward trend for the first time in over a year.

Meanwhile, some areas saw their price increases accelerate compared to the previous week. Apartment prices in Seongbuk-gu rose by 0.27%, while Seodaemun-gu climbed 0.26%, Guro-gu 0.17%, and Gwanak-gu 0.15%. An analysis of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport’s actual transaction price system shows that the average apartment transaction amount in Seongbuk-gu stands at around 942 million won. Similarly, in Gwanak-gu, Guro-gu, Jungnang-gu, and Nowon-gu—where average transaction amounts are in the 600 to 800 million won range—the magnitude of the increase also grew compared to the previous week.

For example, an 84㎡ unit at E-Pyunhansesang Susaek Ecoforet in Eunpyeong-gu was traded at 777 million won on March 4, 2026, but by March 9, the contract was signed at over 820 million won—an increase of more than 40 million won. An 84㎡ unit at Hanmaeul in Guro-gu found a new owner at over 860 million won on March 6, 2026, up more than 30 million won from the 825 million won recorded in February.

In some areas of Gyeonggi Province as well, including Seongnam, Suwon, and Hwaseong, the pace of price increases has accelerated. The market attributes these changes to a combination of factors: difficulties in securing financing due to tighter lending regulations, and a rise in apartment buying demand as the supply of jeonse (long-term deposit lease) units decreases. Park Wongap, Senior Real Estate Specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, explained, “It is noticeably different from previous trends that apartment prices in the highly sought-after Gangnam area are falling first. This seems to be caused by listings from owners with multiple properties or those with high-priced single residences.”

Urgent Sale Advertisement Posted at a Real Estate Agency in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Unlikely to Rebound Even After Higher Capital Gains Taxes

As more properties are listed for sale, there has been a significant increase in listings with reduced asking prices. For example, a 155㎡ unit at Shinhyundai Apartment in Apgujeong-dong, Gangnam-gu, which had an asking price of around 9 billion won as recently as last week, has now dropped by over 1 billion won to about 8 billion won. Similar downward adjustments in asking prices are apparent for some listings in other Gangnam apartment complexes as well.

Experts forecast that it will not be easy for Gangnam property prices to rebound. This is because it is unlikely that demand will follow as it did in the past. Kim Inman, Director of Kim Inman Real Estate Research Institute, commented, “For the time being, there will be a divided movement between the high-end apartment market near the Han River and the mid- to low-priced market under 1.5 billion won. Since the current temporary decline is driven by listings coming onto the market due to heavier property and capital gains taxes, there is a high likelihood that prices will stabilize after May 9, 2026.”

Song Seunghyun, CEO of Urban & Economy, said, “Both the Han River belt and mid- to low-priced apartments are likely to remain in a holding pattern. Many of the apartments owned by people with multiple properties are paired with jeonse leases rather than mortgages, so they will not be greatly affected by lending regulations. We also expect to see more non-apartment properties, like officetels, come onto the market.” Park, the Senior Specialist, added, “Even after the higher capital gains taxes, there will likely still be listings from landlords and owners of high-priced single residences. Therefore, the phenomenon of properties being locked up is unlikely to become severe. With further tax tightening measures expected to be announced soon, a short-term rebound in Gangnam property prices appears unlikely.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.