South Korea-U.S. Combined Drills See Evolving "OPLAN" [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Agreement on new combined OPLAN by South Korean and U.S. defense ministers in 2021
Reflects pre-strike phases such as detecting signs of a North Korean nuclear attack

Starting next month, the South Korea-U.S. combined military exercise "Freedom Shield (FS)" will be conducted. This is interpreted as an indication of the government's intention to accelerate the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) within its term, and that "Operational Plan (OPLAN) 2022," which applies to the South Korea-U.S. exercises, has in effect been completed.

According to a government official on February 4, a Crisis Management Exercise (CMX) will be held from March 3 to 6 ahead of the main FS exercise. After that, a Command Post Exercise (CPX) to simulate and internalize the operational plan is scheduled to be conducted from March 9 to 19.

At the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) held in November last year, South Korea and the United States agreed to complete this year the Full Operational Capability (FOC) assessment, which is the second stage of the three-step verification process for OPCON transfer. After completing the FOC assessment through combined exercises in the first and second half of this year and deriving a "target year for transfer," South Korea will be able to take over OPCON within the current administration's term once the final third-stage Full Mission Capability (FMC) assessment is conducted during the South Korea-U.S. combined exercises in the first and second half of next year or the year after.

South Korea-U.S. combined training conducted for OPCON transfer

For OPCON transfer, the independent capabilities of the South Korean military are necessary, but the completeness of the operational plan must also be verified. South Korean and U.S. forces move in wartime according to the operational plan. The operational plans are operations drawn up by the U.S. Pacific Command and have typically begun with numbers in the 5000 series. They have operated OPLAN 5029, prepared for sudden changes such as a coup or civil unrest in North Korea, a mass defection, or a large-scale natural disaster, and OPLAN 5027, prepared for an all-out war. OPLAN 5027, devised in 1974, outlines how South Korea and the United States would first block a large-scale armored invasion by North Korea and then counterattack. As an operational plan for an all-out war, it excluded nuclear strikes.

In a 2020 National Assembly confirmation hearing, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Won In-chul was asked by Democratic Party lawmaker Hwang Hee, "Bob Woodward's new book mentions a nuclear attack on North Korea based on OPLAN 5027, but there is no such content in OPLAN 5027, correct?" to which he briefly replied, "Yes."

As circumstances in North Korea changed, South Korea and the United States introduced OPLAN 5015 in 2015. OPLAN 5015 integrates war-time and peacetime operational plans and is structured to respond to a variety of situations, including North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD), cyber warfare, and biochemical warfare. In particular, it includes the deployment of units for preemptive strikes and leadership decapitation operations, commonly referred to as the "Kim Jong Un decapitation operation."

Operational plans evolve as North Korea's nuclear threat capabilities develop

Over time, OPLAN 5015 also needed to change. More than 10 years after its drafting, it no longer reflected North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities or changes in the combined forces of South Korea and the United States. It focused on striking key targets such as the Yongbyon nuclear facility in Pyongyang, major command facilities, and major missile bases across North Korea. It also concentrated on training to shorten the time required for cutting-edge U.S. strategic assets (strategic weapons), such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, to arrive on the Korean Peninsula.

The decisive reason for changing OPLAN 5015 was a hacking incident in 2016, believed to have been carried out by North Korea, that targeted the internal defense network. At that time, OPLAN 5015 was leaked. The military announced that it would implement technical and institutional improvements and created a follow-up task force (TF) consisting of 16 members, including the Director of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It also prepared 34 measures to prevent a recurrence of such hacking incidents. Some pointed out that, because the existing plan had already been leaked, a virtually new operational plan was needed.

New OPLAN 2022 established after North Korean hacking

South Korea and the United States agreed to establish a new combined operational plan at the 2021 Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between the two countries' defense ministers. The newly created plan is "OPLAN 2022." OPLAN 2022 is broken down into phases such as detecting signs of North Korean nuclear use, deterring and preventing nuclear use, and responding in the event of a nuclear attack, but it reflects only the situations prior to a nuclear strike. It also includes procedures for detecting signs of nuclear weapons use through various intelligence means such as reconnaissance satellites, human intelligence (HUMINT), and signals intelligence (SIGINT), and for mobilizing all measures, including diplomatic tools, to prevent their use. It was first applied during the South Korea-U.S. combined exercises in 2024.

A Joint Desired Point of Impact (JDPI) was also added. In 2016, South Korea and the United States selected more than 700 JDPIs, including "sources of biological weapons." However, North Korea diversified its launch platforms, for example by having its Railway Mobile Missile Regiment fire ballistic missiles from trains. Although North Korea's railway network extends more than 5,000 km, most of the lines are single-track and the infrastructure is outdated, so only specific areas were included as interception points.

A government official said, "Over the three years since the establishment of OPLAN 2022, parts of it have been applied to South Korea-U.S. combined exercises," adding, "The South Korea-U.S. combined training currently being conducted is based on this operational plan."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.