[Click eStock] "APR: Medicube Proves to Be the Leading Brand of the Year-End Shopping Season"

On December 9, KB Securities analyzed that APR's beauty brand Medicube is fueling expectations for its stock price by delivering outstanding results during the year-end global shopping season.

Son Minyoung, a researcher at KB Securities, stated, "Large-scale promotions were held on major online sales channels such as Amazon in the United States and Qoo10 in Japan for the year-end shopping season. Medicube products dominated the top rankings, confirming that the trend remains robust."

In particular, during Amazon's "Black November" event in the United States (from November 20 to December 1), Medicube had seven products in the Beauty & Personal Care Best Sellers Top 100 as of the midpoint of the period, with four of them ranking in the Top 10. Son explained, "Other brands typically have up to three products in the best sellers, but Medicube exceeded that number. This result once again demonstrates APR's marketing and sales capabilities." U.S. beauty marketing firm Navigo also reported that Medicube achieved a market share of 16.4% during the same period, ranking first. This is a significant gap compared to second-place CeraVe, which had a 5% share.

During Amazon Prime Day in the United States in the third quarter (July 8-11), Medicube recorded a 9.3% market share and approximately 30 billion KRW in sales. In this Black November, not only did its market share increase by 7.1 percentage points, but the event duration was also four times longer. Son estimated, "Based on a simple calculation using third-quarter data, Medicube's sales during the 12 days of Black November in the fourth quarter are expected to reach approximately 150 billion to 160 billion KRW." However, he added, "If the discount rates were greater than in the previous quarter, actual sales may fall short of this estimate."

Medicube's momentum continued on Qoo10 in Japan. At the fourth-quarter Mega Wari event held from November 21 to December 3, three Medicube products ranked in the Top 10, the highest number among brands. In particular, in the Japanese market, the high-priced "Booster Pro" product line ranked first in total sales. In the third-quarter Mega Wari, the same product line also ranked first in sales, generating about 25 billion KRW in revenue. Son projected, "The fourth-quarter Mega Wari is expected to show a similar trend to the third quarter, with sales around 25 billion KRW."

The fastest-growing channel was TikTok Shop in the United States. Son noted, "Sales on Medicube US TikTok Shop in November increased by 138.2% compared to the previous month. Based on this, the estimated fourth-quarter GMV is about 65.3 million USD, which is approximately 2.3 times higher than the previous quarter's 28.9 million USD." Given that APR's third-quarter TikTok Shop sales in the United States were estimated at about 34 billion KRW, it is highly likely that fourth-quarter sales will nearly double, reaching an all-time high.

The overall growth of the TikTok Shop market is also clear. The monthly GMV of the Top 10 shops in the Beauty & Personal Care category increased by an average of 45% year-on-year, and the cumulative GMV for 2025 has already surpassed the total annual figure from the previous year. Son predicted, "As transaction volumes on TikTok Shop increase, its influence in the cosmetics market will expand, and the growth of TikTok Shop will serve as a major driver for the online K-beauty market, including APR, going forward."

A positive trend is also emerging in terms of stock price. Son explained, "From 2025, APR's 12-month forward P/E shows a strong correlation with Medicube's Google Trends data. While Google Trends has risen in response to strong recent shopping season results, the valuation has not kept pace, resulting in a gap." However, on December 8, APR's stock price rose by 5.9% compared to the previous day, and the forward P/E climbed to 26 times, once again tracking the Google Trends trajectory.

Son emphasized, "We have confirmed sales data that exceeded expectations on major channels such as Amazon Black November in the United States, Qoo10 Mega Wari in Japan, and TikTok Shop. APR's fourth-quarter sales are highly likely to surpass market expectations, and with an upward revision in expectations, further rerating of the stock price is possible."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.