Mini Local Elections in U.S. on the 4th: A Prelude to Next Year’s Midterms Amid Trump’s Unilateral Drive

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On the 4th (local time), a mini local election will be held in the United States to elect the governors of New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the mayor of New York City. Although this is not a nationwide election, it serves as the first midterm evaluation of President Donald Trump, who has effectively taken control of both the executive and legislative branches and has been leading the government since his re-election in January this year. This election is being closely watched as a barometer of American public sentiment toward the Trump administration and as a prelude to the midterm elections scheduled for November next year.

On the 1st (local time), supporters cheered at the election rally of Joran Mamdani, a candidate for New York City mayor, held in Queens, one of the city's five boroughs. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

According to major U.S. media outlets such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and CNN on the 2nd (local time), this election will select new governors for New Jersey and Virginia, as well as a new mayor for New York City.

The Democratic Party is showing an overall favorable trend. In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democratic U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill is running as a candidate, while in the Virginia gubernatorial race, former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger is the candidate. According to a survey conducted by polling firm YouGov from October 17 to 28, Sherrill and Spanberger recorded approval ratings of 51% and 55%, respectively, leading Republican candidates Jack Ciattarelli, former state legislator, and Winsome Earle-Sears, lieutenant governor, by 9 percentage points and 14 percentage points, respectively.

In the New York City mayoral race, Democratic candidate and New York State Assemblyman Joran Mamdani is leading. According to a poll conducted by Atlas of 1,500 people through October 30, Assemblyman Mamdani had an approval rating of 40%, ahead of independent candidate and former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (34%) and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa (24%). Despite being considered a radical even within the Democratic Party, due to his populist pledges such as rent freezes, doubling the minimum wage, introducing a wealth tax, and providing free buses and childcare, Mamdani maintains a stable lead over Cuomo, making his victory highly likely according to analysts.

Meanwhile, in California, a referendum on redistricting is also drawing attention. The proposed redistricting would allow the Democratic stronghold of California to secure up to five additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. This move is seen as a countermeasure to Texas, a Republican stronghold, which previously adjusted its districts to gain five additional House seats, and is expected to have a significant impact on the balance of power between the two parties.

U.S. media view this election as the first evaluation of President Trump and a bellwether for next year's midterm election results. CNN analyzed, "The upcoming election will serve as an early assessment of Trump's presidency." Depending on the outcome of next November's midterm elections, President Trump may either maintain strong momentum in governing or face an early lame-duck period, and this election is seen as an indicator of that direction.

Accordingly, not only President Trump but also former Democratic President Barack Obama have stepped forward to support their respective party's candidates.

According to U.S. political media outlet Axios, President Trump has mobilized his political organization to inject millions of dollars into the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races. This is aimed at bringing Republican-leaning voters, who support Trump but tend to have low turnout, to the polls. A Trump aide explained to Axios, "Virginia has always been an incubator for testing midterm election strategies," highlighting the importance of this election.

Former President Obama, who has largely refrained from public appearances since leaving office, also campaigned in support of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races the previous day, urging voters to use their ballots to hold President Trump accountable.

Amid President Trump's unilateral dominance, there is speculation that if the Democratic Party, which lost its presence after last year's presidential defeat, wins this election, it will begin to step up its role as an opposition force in earnest.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.