"Even Including HBM... Overall DRAM Prices May Drop Up to 5% in Q1 Next Year"

TrendForce Analysis Results

DRAM prices are expected to decline in the first quarter of next year, even including high bandwidth memory (HBM).

On the 30th, Taiwanese market research firm TrendForce announced that overall DRAM prices are expected to fall by 3-8% in the fourth quarter of this year and decline more sharply by 8-13% in the first quarter of next year. In the fourth quarter of this year, including HBM, which has strong demand, prices are expected to rise by 0-8%, but in the first quarter of next year, even including HBM, prices are forecasted to drop by 0-5%. This is attributed to the fact that prices of server and graphics DRAM products will turn downward in the first quarter of next year.

TrendForce stated, "With seasonal weakness and a slowdown in consumer demand for products such as smartphones coinciding, the DRAM market will face price decline pressure in the first quarter of next year," adding, "Early inventory stocking by notebook manufacturers in preparation for potential import tariffs from the Trump administration has further exacerbated the price decline."

Provided by Samsung Electronics

Overall server DRAM prices are expected to fall by 5-10% in the first quarter of next year due to seasonal demand weakness. Conversely, prices rose by 0-5% in the fourth quarter of this year. The latest server DDR5 prices are expected to drop by 3-8% in the first quarter of next year due to increased supply, unlike the 3-8% rise in the fourth quarter of this year. During the same period, server DDR4 prices are expected to decline more sharply from 8-13% to 10-15%. TrendForce explained, "This is because manufacturers are shifting production capacity from general-purpose DRAM Double Data Rate 4 (DDR4) to DDR5, and some HBM production capacity is also being reallocated to DDR5, increasing DDR5 supply."

They added, "Due to weak demand, increased DDR4 production by Chinese suppliers, and the influx of low-priced DRAM into the spot market, DDR4 prices are expected to fall more steeply than advanced DRAM like DDR5," and "As a result, PC DRAM prices are expected to decline more sharply in the first quarter of next year compared to the previous quarter." TrendForce also noted, "DDR4 is facing increased price decline pressure due to abundant inventory in distribution channels, high stockpiling by buyers, and Chinese suppliers' plans to increase production next year, accelerating the DDR4 price drop." Mobile and consumer DRAM prices are also expected to continue their downward trend in the first quarter of next year following the fourth quarter of this year.

DRAM Product Price Outlook for Q4 This Year and Q1 Next Year. Provided by TrendForce

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.