[US Election 2024] Rising Early Voting Heat... Who's Smiling?

[US Election 2024]
Georgia and Other Battleground States Set Early Voting Records on First Day
Trump's Early Voting Push Narrows Turnout Gap

With the US presidential election on November 5th approaching, the race between former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party is extremely close, fueling unprecedented enthusiasm for early voting. This is due not only to the traditionally active Democratic early voters but also to the Republican base, whose unity has been strengthened by Trump's encouragement, turning out in large numbers for early voting. Early voting for the US presidential election officially began last month on the 20th in three states?Virginia, South Dakota, and Minnesota?and major battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina have been breaking records and heating up the atmosphere from day one.

According to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, as of 9:38 PM Eastern Time on the 29th (local time), 53,460,802 voters nationwide had cast their early ballots, surpassing 50 million just over a month after early voting began. This exceeds 50% of the approximately 100 million early votes cast in the 2020 presidential election, which recorded the highest turnout since 1900. Among these, 25,686,627 voters cast their ballots by mail, while 27,765,237 voted in person at early voting sites.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The New York Times (NYT) noted, "The surge of Republican voters into early voting is driving record-breaking turnout," adding, "Since the record early voting turnout in the 2020 election helped deliver victory to President Joe Biden, the power of early voting is crucial for both Trump and Harris in this election." According to the Center for Election Innovation and Research (CEIR), early voting rates in US presidential elections have steadily increased: 14% in 2000, 21% in 2004, 31% in 2008, 33% in 2012, 40% in 2016, and 69% in 2020.

The battleground states are leading this intense early voting surge. Particularly, Georgia and North Carolina have shown remarkable enthusiasm by breaking various records from the very first day of early voting. Gabe Sterling, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, posted on his social media, "About 328,000 people participated in Georgia’s early voting on the first day," noting, "This represents a 123% increase from the 136,000 votes cast on the first day of early voting in the 2020 election." Georgia is a key battleground with the second-largest number of electoral votes (16), following Pennsylvania (19). In the 2016 election, Trump secured victory here, while in 2020, Biden won this state and ultimately the presidency.

North Carolina, despite being severely hit recently by Hurricane Helen, has not seen its residents’ political engagement dampened by the storm. According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 353,000 people cast early votes on the first day, surpassing the previous record of 348,000 from the last presidential election. With over 3.1 million early voters so far, North Carolina shows a razor-thin split in party turnout, with Democrats at 33% and Republicans at 34.1%, making it the most closely contested battleground state in terms of party voter registration data. Additionally, in Arizona, Republican turnout (41.9% vs. Democrats 34%) has been strong, while in Pennsylvania, the "battleground of battlegrounds," Democratic turnout (57.8% vs. Republicans 31.6%) leads significantly.

However, election experts caution against using these early voting statistics as a basis for predicting the election outcome. Only 25 of the 50 states provide party affiliation data for early voters, and even then, it is only possible to confirm party registration, not the final candidate for whom the vote was cast. David Becker, CEIR director and election law contributor for CBS News, explained, "The distribution of early votes by party does not predict election results," adding, "We won’t know until the official vote count is fully completed."

Historically, high early voting turnout has generally been considered favorable for Democrats. This is because early voting tends to be more accessible to socially disadvantaged groups who are more likely to support the Democratic Party. According to NBC News statistics, Democratic voters currently have an early voting rate of about 42%, slightly ahead of Republicans at 40%. However, experts warn that traditional election formulas may not apply this time, as former President Trump, who previously questioned the reliability of mail-in voting after the 2020 election, has suddenly shifted his stance and is now encouraging early voting.

In a recent phone interview with Fox News Radio, Trump said, "I have very mixed feelings, but I will also vote early," urging his supporters to participate. This strategic shift is believed to be a response to the unexpectedly high early voting turnout in battleground states like Georgia and North Carolina, which have been breaking records. The gap in mail-in early voting rates between Democrats and Republicans, which was 28 percentage points in 2020 (52% vs. 24%), has now narrowed to 10 percentage points.

Nonetheless, it remains uncertain whether increased mail-in voting among Republican supporters will translate into higher vote shares for Trump. It could simply be a case of voters who would have supported Trump anyway choosing a different voting method. Charles Stewart III, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), emphasized, "It is still unclear whether the surge in early voting will bring more votes to Trump and other Republican candidates," adding, "It may just mean that people who would have voted on Election Day are voting earlier. The main effect of early voting is to provide convenience to those who might not have voted otherwise."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.