[Broken Weather Vane] ① 'Political Broker' Myeong Taegyun... Approaching Power Through Public Opinion Polls

Using Election Polls for Political Actions
Poll Weights Stretched Like Rubber Bands

Editor's NoteThe suspicions surrounding 'political broker' Myeong Taegyun are shaking the political world. Claiming to be a public opinion poll expert, Myeong approached power by utilizing polls as a barometer of public sentiment. In the process, he is suspected of manipulating these polls. Taking this opportunity, we examine the reality of opinion manipulation and countermeasures in three parts. ① Myeong Taegyun's Approach to Power through Opinion Polls

The person who exposed Myeong's illegal opinion poll suspicions is Kang Hyekyung, who served as the accounting manager for former lawmaker Kim Youngseon. On the 21st, Kang released a recording of a phone call with Myeong through her attorney, Lawyer Noh Younghee. The recording reveals signs of opinion manipulation. On April 2, 2022, Myeong told Kang, "Lee Junseok said to bring results where Kim Jisoo wins, whether from public or unpublished polls, then they will give a strategic nomination." Myeong said, "Shouldn't we make a lot of landline calls?" and added, "Mix it about 80-20 or 70-30, widen the gap between Candidate Kim and former lawmaker Kim, and use it for promotional purposes."

This suggests that opinion polls were used not as a means to verify 'competitiveness' but as post-hoc evidence for predetermined conclusions, and that the sampling population of the polls may have been designed to produce specific results.

There are also indications that Myeong attempted to manipulate polls before the presidential election. On February 28, 2022, Myeong instructed Kang to apply age-based weighting later when conducting a poll. Instead of applying weights according to population ratios, it appears the weights were altered to produce intended results. Furthermore, Myeong said, "Anyway, it won't be published. It doesn't matter if it's just a survey," and added, "The questions are simple: will you vote early, who will you vote for as a candidate, and just ask about support for three political parties. It's simple."

The polls conducted by Myeong were unpublished polls, not the public opinion polls commonly seen in the media. According to Article 108 of the Public Official Election Act, to conduct election polls, the purpose, region, and method must be reported in writing to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission (CEPDC) two days prior to the survey. However, polls commissioned by internet media outlets with an average daily user count of over 100,000 or conducted directly by polling agencies are exempt from this reporting obligation. Myeong is suspected of manipulating unpublished polls that do not require reporting.

In particular, there are numerous signs that Myeong manipulated polls by changing the number of respondents by group or age-based weights. At a legislative inspection held the previous day at the National Assembly's Legislation and Judiciary Committee, in response to Democratic Party lawmaker Park Gyuntaek's question, "How did Myeong manipulate the polls?" Kang said, "They extract 500 to 600 poll samples, but (Myeong) instructed to prepare reports based on 2,000 samples," explaining, "He told me to multiply the 500 samples by four." She continued, "He instructed to increase the support rate for candidate Yoon Seokyeol among people in their 20s and 30s by 20%, meaning to multiply the responses supporting Yoon in those age groups to create the report." All such manipulations are illegal. A representative from the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission said, "Both public and unpublished polls must comply with the Public Official Election Act."

Myeong Taegyun / Source: Screenshot from Myeong Taegyun's Facebook

If Kang's claims are true, why did Myeong manipulate unpublished polls and others?

He sought to use polls to produce desired political outcomes. For example, he aimed to influence intra-party primaries. According to a report by Newstomato on the call records between Myeong and Kang, in September 2021, Myeong called Kang and seemingly instructed her to produce poll results showing President Yoon Seokyeol's support rate 2-3 percentage points higher than Daegu Mayor Hong Joonpyo in the People Power Party's presidential candidate suitability poll.

According to the report, Myeong said, "Raise Yoon Seokyeol a bit so that he is about 2% ahead of Hong Joonpyo," and added, "You know those young people? Increase the coefficient of their responses. Yoon should come out 2-3% higher than Hong." Kang revealed that she stopped the poll and manipulated the data by artificially multiplying to produce fake statistics.

The problem is that only a portion of this manipulation has been revealed. According to the list disclosed by Lawyer Noh, representing Kang, 27 people including opposition figures as well as ruling party members are known to be involved with Myeong.

Regarding this, on the 22nd, Myeong said on CBS Radio's 'Park Jaehong's One-on-One Battle,' "There are many people on the list whom I have never even seen," and "What Kang claims is very different from the facts." Asia Economy attempted to contact Myeong via calls and texts regarding the opinion manipulation suspicions but received no response.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.