Harris Leads in All Polls Ahead of US Democratic Primary Tomorrow

CBS Survey Shows 3 Percentage Points Lead
WP·ABC Surveys Show 4 Percentage Points Advantage

On the eve of the U.S. Democratic National Convention, a poll released on the 18th (local time) showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump.

According to a poll released that day by CBS News and YouGov, 51% of registered voters nationwide said they would vote for Vice President Harris, while 48% said they would vote for former President Trump, with Harris holding a narrow 3 percentage point lead. The poll was conducted from the 14th to the 16th, with a margin of error of ±2.1 percentage points.

Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States [Photo by AFP]

According to a Washington Post (WP), ABC News, and Ipsos poll, 49% of registered voters supported Vice President Harris, while 45% supported former President Trump, giving Harris a 4 percentage point lead. This poll surveyed 1,975 registered voters from the 9th to the 13th, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. In the previous poll conducted last month, President Joe Biden and former President Trump were tied at 46% each.

Even in a three-way race, Vice President Harris holds the advantage. In a three-way contest, support rates were 47% for Harris, 44% for Trump, and 5% for candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

However, WP explained that considering the margin of error in the nationwide poll, Harris's lead is not statistically significant. It is also smaller than the 4.5% gap between President Biden and former President Trump in the 2020 election.

Forty-four percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the Harris vs. Trump matchup in this election. In the Biden vs. Trump matchup last month, only 28% of voters expressed satisfaction. This increase is influenced by Democratic supporters' satisfaction with the matchup rising from 20% last month to 60% this month. Meanwhile, Republican supporters' satisfaction with the election matchup declined from 50% last month to 48% this month.

Democrats also led Republicans in favorability ratings for running mates. Thirty-nine percent viewed Minnesota Governor Tim Walz positively, while only 32% viewed Senator JD Vance positively.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

However, the situation differs somewhat in battleground states. In the CBS poll focusing only on battleground states, Vice President Harris and former President Trump were tied at 50-50.

Trust in economic policies favors former President Trump. In the WP poll, 49% of respondents identified economic policy as the most important issue, with Trump leading at 46%. He also leads on inflation (45%) and immigration policy (46%). Vice President Harris holds the advantage on protecting democracy (43%), abortion (45%), and racial diversity (45%).

In the CBS poll, Trump leads on the economy (56%), inflation (61%), and the U.S.-Mexico border issue (76%). Conversely, Harris leads on race and diversity (78%), abortion (69%), and democracy (57%).

Separately from approval ratings, Vice President Harris trails former President Trump in terms of name recognition. In the CBS survey, 86% of respondents said they know who former President Trump is and what he represents, while only 64% said the same about Vice President Harris.

WP stated, "Since Biden withdrew from the primary in July, the election dynamics have changed, but a close race is expected in the November election," adding, "The outcome will be decided by who wins in seven battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.