Biden's Black Support Declines in Battleground States... Progressives Prepare Early Measures Against Trump 2.0

Survey of Black Voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan
Biden Support Declines, Trump Slightly Rises
NYT: "Progressives Prepare for Trump 2.0"

In the key battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan in the northern United States, a majority of Black voters support President Joe Biden, but his approval ratings have declined compared to the 2020 presidential election, according to a recent survey. Meanwhile, progressive groups are reportedly preparing plans to counter the possibility of former President Donald Trump's return to power.

USA Today, in collaboration with Suffolk University, conducted a poll from the 9th to the 13th targeting 500 Black voters each in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and released the results on the 16th (local time). In a hypothetical multi-candidate matchup, President Biden received 56.2% support in Pennsylvania and 54.4% in Michigan. Former President Trump recorded support rates of 10.8% in Pennsylvania and 15.2% in Michigan.

USA Today reported that support for President Biden among Black voters dropped by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 22 percentage points in Michigan. Since Biden had received 92% support from Black voters in these two states according to the 2020 exit polls, the decline is even greater based on exit poll standards, the media outlet noted.

On the other hand, support for former President Trump among Black voters has somewhat increased. Trump's support rose by approximately 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 6 percentage points in Michigan compared to the 2020 presidential election.

On the same day, The New York Times (NYT) reported that as Trump shows an advantage in various polls, the American progressive camp has begun early discussions on contingency planning. They are preparing measures assuming that if Trump returns to power, he would implement ultra-hardline policies on abortion and immigration.

According to the NYT, five states governed by Democratic governors?Washington, California, Massachusetts, New York, and Oregon?are stockpiling the abortion pill mifepristone. This is due to concerns that a second Trump administration might criminalize the shipment of abortion pills to other states.

As former President Trump has pledged a "historic crackdown on illegal immigrants" and other hardline immigration policies, immigration advocacy groups have also started preparing for this possibility. The National Immigration Law Center (NILC) has been developing response plans since last fall in case a second Trump administration materializes.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) plans to block or delay Trump's policies through a series of lawsuits if he returns to power. The ACLU believes that under a second Trump administration, there is a high likelihood of crackdowns on illegal immigrants, restrictions on abortion rights, politically motivated dismissals of public officials, and the use of military forces to suppress protests.

The NYT described these moves by American progressive groups as somewhat unusual. While it is common for organizations to prepare for a change in administration during election seasons, the fact that progressive groups have started preparing for a second Trump term earlier than in the past, and that the scale and scope of their plans are unprecedented, is notable. The NYT reported that progressive groups are anxious because President Biden's approval ratings are low and he is trailing former President Trump in battleground state polls.

The Biden administration expedited environmental regulations this spring to prevent former President Trump from using the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to overturn regulations from the previous administration, as he did during his first term. The CRA grants Congress the authority to nullify regulations submitted by government agencies, but Congress must act within 60 legislative days after receiving the regulation to do so.

Trump's camp criticized these moves as attempts to block the policy agenda of a potential second Trump administration.