"More Gains Than Seats" 'Far-Right Surge' in European Elections, What Are the Future Implications?

'Crushing Defeat' Macron Dissolves Parliament... German Far-Right Party Rises to 2nd Place
Immigration and Security Concerns Behind... Political Aftershocks Expected

In the European Parliament elections that concluded on the 9th (local time), the center-right maintained its position as the largest party in the parliament, while the anticipated surge of far-right forces was confirmed. In France, President Emmanuel Macron, whose party suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right party, dissolved the parliament and announced early general elections. In Germany, the far-right party, which sparked controversy over its pro-Nazi stance, secured second place. As the election was essentially a midterm evaluation of the established political powers, the ruling parties of major countries were brought to their knees, signaling aftershocks not only in individual countries but across the entire political landscape of the European Union (EU).

French President Emmanuel Macron, who suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right party, announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the holding of early general elections in a national address on the 9th (local time). [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Center-right Maintains First Place... Far-right Surge as Expected

According to the analysis of the expected number of seats in the European Parliament updated as of 1 a.m. on the 10th, the European People's Party (EPP), which is currently the largest party with a center-right orientation, is expected to maintain its position as the largest party in the European Parliament by securing 189 seats (26.25%) out of the total 720 seats. Following them, the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the centrist Renew Europe (RE) are expected to hold onto the second (135 seats) and third (83 seats) positions respectively, albeit with fewer seats than before.

The far-right forces surged as expected. The hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) political groups are projected to increase their seats from 69 and 49 to 72 and 58 respectively. The number of seats held by far-right parties not affiliated with existing political groups, such as Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was expelled from ID, also expanded. Politico Europe diagnosed that "the political center of Europe is shifting to the right." The European Parliament is scheduled to announce the final results reflecting the vote count on the morning of the 10th.

Source: European Parliament Expected Seat Analysis

The surge of far-right forces was particularly prominent in France and Germany. President Macron, faced with exit polls showing his party Renaissance trailing far behind the far-right National Rally (RN) with 15% versus 31.5%, immediately took the gamble of dissolving the parliament and calling for early general elections. The early elections are planned for the 30th of this month and the 7th of next month. For President Macron, this move is interpreted as an attempt to seek change by exercising his presidential prerogative to dissolve the parliament amid political pressure. France24 described it as "Macron's gamble."

In Germany, while the far-right AfD rose, the so-called traffic light coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz was overshadowed and lost face. In this election, AfD is expected to achieve 16.5% of the vote, securing second place. Although this falls short of the first-quarter poll results that suggested over 20%, the far-right surge was confirmed despite recent controversies including pro-Nazi remarks and bribery scandals. Additionally, far-right parties made gains or seized momentum in Hungary, Italy, Austria, Cyprus, Greece, and the Netherlands.

Predicted Surge... Inevitable Impact on European Parliament's Political Landscape

This far-right surge had been predicted early on. Externally, the security crisis Europe faces due to the Ukraine war and internally, the rapid increase in immigrants due to refugees are considered the background factors. Locally, with the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict occurring simultaneously, inflation soared due to the pandemic, intensifying opposition to refugee support policies and fueling populism.

The New York Times (NYT) stated, "Factors behind the far-right rise include anger over pandemic management, inflation, and the consequences of the Ukraine war," and diagnosed that "this election revealed the practical weaknesses of the governments of major EU countries, France and Germany."

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is giving a speech in Brussels on the night of the 9th (local time) after the European Parliament elections concluded.
[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Accordingly, a tectonic shift in the political landscape of the European Parliament is inevitable. As discussions on a grand coalition led by the EPP are underway, a reorganization of political groups is expected, and the political situations in major countries like France and Germany have become more complex, increasing political dynamism. Currently, the so-called 'informal coalition government' within the European Parliament, consisting of the EPP, S&D, and RE, represents center-right, center-left, and centrist positions respectively. However, the rise of far-right forces is seen as a significant challenge to the mainstream pro-EU authorities.

CNN assessed, "The gains of the far-right may seem minor in terms of seat numbers but will be quite substantial." The outlet pointed out that even among right-wing parties, there are significant differences in core areas such as support for Ukraine and pro-EU stances, noting, "They differ in policy approaches. If domestic politics shift to the hard right, the center-right in the European Parliament might cooperate with the hard right." This political landscape shift could complicate EU legislation and intensify confusion. The Guardian also forecasted that "EU legislation will become more complex."

CNBC noted that the far-right, which increased its seats, could pressure the parliament to block refugee admissions and reduce support for Ukraine, expecting impacts on policies related to immigration, environment, defense, industrial strategy, and EU enlargement. Citigroup, in a previously released report, predicted that "some far-right and far-left parties in Europe have close ties with Russia and China, potentially aiming to block increases in defense spending." Consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft forecasted that "it will become more difficult for the EU to accept new member states," adding, "With all candidate countries' accession negotiations showing sluggish progress, the EU may remain at 27 member states until 2029."

Meanwhile, the leaders of the 27 EU countries will hold an informal summit in Brussels, Belgium, on the 17th to begin discussions on leadership formation based on this election. Ursula von der Leyen, the EPP candidate likely to be reappointed as President of the European Commission, said on the day, "What European citizens expect is a strong Europe. We will build a bulwark against the extremes of left and right," adding, "We will stop them."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.