[War & Business] Why Israel Cannot Stop the War

On the 12th of last month (local time) in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a memorial speech for fallen soldiers on Israel's Remembrance Day.
[Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

"The two indecisive Netanyahus are hesitating between war and ceasefire, causing the war to drag on."

The New York Times (NYT) criticized this by quoting figures opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israeli politics. On the 31st of last month, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that he would accept the ceasefire plan proposed by the Joe Biden administration, but then reversed his position again and made a hardline statement to continue the war. This contradictory behavior creates the illusion that there are two Netanyahus?one moderate and one hardline.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has pressured Prime Minister Netanyahu to stop the attack on Rafah, and the White House is also exerting pressure, expecting Netanyahu’s cabinet to naturally accept the ceasefire plan. John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Coordinator, warned at a press conference on the 2nd (local time), "If Hamas agrees to the three-stage ceasefire plan, Israel will naturally say 'yes,'" urging not to disappoint the expectations of the U.S. government.

With the conflict with Hamas entering its ninth month and almost the entire Gaza Strip except Rafah subdued, the justification for continuing the war has greatly weakened. As the Israeli military pours hundreds of millions of won worth of shells daily into a desert with no resources, the prolonged war is putting significant pressure on Israel’s finances. Additionally, with Hamas’s military activities nearly paralyzed and Israel’s unilateral offensive continuing, civilian casualties are snowballing, deepening Israel’s isolation in the international community.

From this perspective, Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a situation where he must accept the Biden administration’s ceasefire plan even now and build an image as a leader of peace in the international community. His acceptance of President Biden’s ceasefire announcement on the 31st of last month and his statement approving ceasefire negotiations with Hamas by the Israeli delegation are also seen as politically calculated moves.

However, the complex political structure of the Israeli cabinet has once again tied his hands. The far-right parties forming a coalition with the Netanyahu government have unanimously opposed agreeing to the ceasefire plan and threatened to immediately collapse the coalition if the war with Hamas is halted. In the 120-seat Israeli parliament, Netanyahu’s coalition holds 64 seats, maintaining power in an unstable state, while the far-right parties hold 14 seats. If they withdraw from the coalition, the government will collapse immediately. This is why the so-called two Netanyahus are trapped in a dilemma, unable to act decisively.

As he shows indecisiveness, the division between moderates and hardliners deepens further. Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister and a representative hardliner, has even declared that he will propose an alternative force to govern the Gaza Strip instead of Hamas, effectively overturning the ceasefire plan. This is a declaration to continue the war until Hamas is completely eradicated.

Conversely, the National Unity Party, a centrist-right faction participating in the war cabinet, has pressured that if the ceasefire plan is not accepted, they will break the coalition. The centrist-right faction, including the National Unity Party, holds 8 seats, so their withdrawal also risks collapsing the coalition.

Ultimately, the future of Middle East peace and Israeli politics hinges on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision. Whether the war will change the government or the government will change the war could have a significant impact on all political spheres worldwide, where security issues are intertwined.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.