"Deterioration and Prolonged US-China Relations... Increased Uncertainty During Trump Administration"

"Tensions will continue for a long time." Professor Li Cheng, a US-China relations expert at the University of Hong Kong, identified structural factors as the background for the deterioration of relations between the two countries and predicted that it would take about 10 to 15 years to return to normal relations as in the past. He also anticipated that if former US President Donald Trump were to regain power, the anti-China stance would intensify and uncertainty would increase. However, he viewed the possibility of China using force against Taiwan as low.

In an interview with Hong Kong's SCMP released on the 25th, Professor Li stated, "The US-China summit in San Francisco at the end of last year does not reverse the US policy toward China. It only provides a floor to prevent further deterioration; it does not return to the previous period."

He pointed out that "China is the most frightening challenge and even an enemy," noting that continuity in US policy can be seen despite the transition from the Trump administration to the Biden administration. He added, "It will take a long time to return to truly normal relations from 10 years ago?probably 10 to 15 years." Professor Li is a leading scholar on US-China relations who worked for 17 years at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, US, before moving to Hong Kong in July last year and currently serving at the University of Hong Kong.

Originally from China and having lived in the US for a long time, he cited three structural issues as the background for the rapidly worsening relations between the two countries in recent years. First, Professor Li explained, "The US has never faced such a comprehensive and all-encompassing competitor as China since World War II," adding, "China's challenge includes economic, military, and scientific-technological aspects, as well as ideological and political power." This corresponds to the so-called 'Thucydides Trap,' where the rise of a new great power causes the existing great power to be wary, potentially leading to war. He predicted, "Tensions will not disappear anytime soon," and that this structure will persist for a long time until the existing power, the US, recognizes that it cannot defeat the emerging power, China.

The second structural issue stems from domestic reasons in the US. Professor Li diagnosed that "If the US political system, economy, society, and culture were in good condition, it would not be interested in China's different political system, ideology, and economic situation," and that the divided state of the US makes China appear more exaggerated and sensitive. He also forecasted that this situation would not ease in the short term but would continue for a long time. Lastly, the third is a more practical reason. Professor Li pointed out that while China has grown over the past 30 years from a country without a middle class to one with the largest middle class, the US middle class has shrunk, causing another structural problem. He explained, "The US middle class, especially the lower middle class, has not benefited from economic globalization," and "They know that China's progress has come at a cost paid by the US."

Regarding the possibility of former President Trump regaining power in the upcoming US presidential election in November, he assessed, "The whole world will be greatly affected, and China is no exception." He said, "Trump's Republican Party will probably be more conservative, more ideological in some respects, and more anti-China," adding, "Some Republican politicians want a regime change in China." He also noted, "In some ways, Trump's isolationism could work to China's advantage, but since the conservative anti-China faction is much stronger in the Republican Party than in the Democratic Party, China is very concerned." Accordingly, he explained that it will be necessary to watch whether strong anti-China figures such as Michael Pompeo, Peter Navarro, Steve Bannon, and Steve Miller will be appointed in a potential second Trump administration.

Tensions between the US and China are also rising over the Asia-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula. However, Professor Li evaluated, "There is serious doubt about whether the conflict will actually expand to the Asia-Pacific." Regarding Taiwan, considered a powder keg in US-China relations, he personally predicted that "China will not use force against Taiwan." He added, "Since China has maintained some restraint regarding Taiwan's elections, incidents are more likely to occur in the South China Sea." In particular, Professor Li predicted that "former President Trump will attempt to hold talks again with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un," which will also increase uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region.

So far, the US and China have accused each other of escalating regional tensions in the Asia-Pacific. When asked who is provoking tensions, Professor Li answered, "Mutually reinforced fear and hostility." Along with this, he warned, "If the world enters another war, it will be even more destructive," and "In a US-China conflict, artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced technologies will be used, making it inevitably more destructive." Regarding the crisis theory about Hong Kong raised in the West, he dismissed it, saying, "It is absurd to say that Hong Kong is finished," adding, "Despite recent economic and financial problems, Hong Kong remains one of Asia's largest financial centers. The sluggish stock market is an investment opportunity. A rebound is only a matter of time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.