[Click eStock] "Hantoo, Raises 2024 KOSPI Band to 2500~3000p"

On the 25th, Korea Investment & Securities further raised its expected KOSPI fluctuation range for this year from 2300-2750 points to 2500-3000 points.

Researcher Kim Dae-jun of Korea Investment & Securities stated on the 25th, "The upper limit is revised to 3000 points, applying a 12-month forward ROE (Return on Equity) of 9.0% and COE (Cost of Equity) of 8.75% (PBR 1.03x), while the lower limit is adjusted to 2500 points, corresponding to an ROE of 8.0% and COE of 9.25% (PBR 0.86x)."

He explained that the upper band was adjusted considering the possibility of KOSPI ROE rising above the average. Researcher Kim Dae-jun analyzed, "Given the rebound of semiconductors, which have significant influence within the Korean stock market, further index gains are inevitable. Currently, semiconductors are benefiting from price rebounds and demand recovery, revitalizing the industry, while also enjoying growth benefits from AI." Additionally, he viewed positively the possibility of further COE reductions considering domestic and international interest rate declines and the maintained outlook for rate cuts.

The lower band was adjusted assuming a deterioration in earnings forecasts leading to a downward revision of ROE and a delayed interest rate cut amid continued inflation. Researcher Kim said, "Inflationary pressures still persist this year, which could cause interest rate policies to turn unfavorable for the market. In such a case, the index could be exposed to downward pressure."

The index trend is expected to rise in the first half of the year and remain sideways in the second half, as before. He predicted the index would peak at the end of the second quarter. Researcher Kim stated, "The first half is positive due to IT-centered profit improvements and government stimulus (value-up). The second half is expected to see a slowdown in the upward trend due to the fading effects of policies and external political risks."

Accordingly, he advised that the strategy should involve index betting until the first half of the year and selective stock-focused responses in the second half.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.