US CPI Surprise... Exchange Rate Closes Up 7.3 Won

On the 14th, the won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,335.4 won, up 7.3 won due to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) shock.

The US CPI for January, released overnight, came out higher than market expectations, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to rise further. Min Kyung-won, an economist at Woori Bank, said, "At this point, it is difficult to expect an interest rate cut and a weakening of the dollar in the first half of the year."

Regarding Treasury yields, the recent breakout from the trading range has raised concerns about a delay in the timing of the US base interest rate cut.

On that day, the won-dollar exchange rate started at 1,340 won, up 11.9 won from the previous day, fluctuating in the 1,300 won range during the session.

During the session, the dollar showed strength while the yen and euro weakened, which is analyzed to have influenced the won-dollar exchange rate accordingly.

The market is focusing on whether the short-term peak in the low 1,340 won range will be surpassed amid consecutive shocks from the dollar's strength. Economist Min explained, "The turning point that will determine the direction of the won-dollar exchange rate is the breakthrough of the short-term peak in the low 1,340 won range," adding, "If the breakthrough is successful, the secondary resistance level is projected at 1,370 won, the upper end of the February forecast."

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