'In 4 Years Like This' 30% of Daycare Centers and Kindergartens to Disappear... 40% in Population-Declining Busan

By 2028, 12,000 fewer than in 2022
Accelerated 'regional extinction' due to disappearance of daycare centers and kindergartens

Just four years from now, in 2028, it is predicted that nurseries and kindergartens will close to about one-third of their current levels. A report titled "Diagnosis of Nursery and Kindergarten Infrastructure Supply in the Era of Low Birthrate" (Researcher Lee Jae-hee), published in the recent issue of the Childcare Policy Forum by the Korea Institute of Child Care and Education on the 30th, stated that the number of nurseries nationwide decreased by 21.1%, from 39,171 in 2018 to 30,923 in 2022, while kindergartens declined by 5.1%, from 9,021 to 8,562 during the same period.

In particular, the report analyzed that the direct cause of the decline in nurseries and kindergartens was the reduction in the number of newborns, which led to a decrease in the infant and toddler population. It also predicted that the downward trend in the number of nurseries and kindergartens would steepen as the low birthrate worsens. The research team used Statistics Korea’s future population projections (low variant) and assumed that enrollment rates and capacity fulfillment rates would remain constant to forecast the future number of nurseries and kindergartens. They projected that the combined number, which was 39,053 in 2022, would drop to 26,637 by 2028.

It is predicted that by 2028, just four years from now, one-third of the current daycare centers and kindergartens will close.
Photo by Jo Yongjun jun21@

According to the report, within six years, as many as 31.8% (12,416) of nurseries and kindergartens will be forced to close due to the inability to enroll students. The expected decline rates were especially high in major cities such as Busan (39.4%), Seoul (37.3%), Daegu (37.3%), and Incheon (34.0%). The biggest concern is the vicious cycle where the low birthrate causes a reduction in childcare and educational institutions, which in turn accelerates regional population extinction. Consequently, there are calls to strengthen childcare infrastructure and care services, especially in vulnerable areas.

In Busan, the population extinction issue is particularly severe. From January to November last year, the number of births in Busan decreased by 9% compared to the previous year, totaling 11,995 newborns. The crude birth rate (number of births per 1,000 people) was recorded at 3.5. Only Jeonbuk (3.4) had a lower crude birth rate nationwide. Busan is also experiencing a continuous increase in its elderly population aged 65 and over, which is expected to exceed one million by 2035. The total population of Busan is projected to fall below 3 million, with the proportion of elderly people over 65 surpassing 30%. Since 2021, Busan has been the first metropolitan area in the country to enter a "super-aged society," where more than 20% of the total population is elderly.

The report expressed concern that "many nurseries and kindergartens continue to operate despite low capacity fulfillment rates, so the issue of institutional closures will become more serious in the future," and warned that "nurseries and kindergartens with insufficient infant populations are highly likely to disappear, which could further accelerate population extinction in those areas." It also suggested, "Support should be provided to maintain at least minimal nursery and kindergarten infrastructure in towns and rural areas experiencing severe population outflow," and recommended exploring measures such as converting unused spaces like elementary schools, administrative welfare centers, and community halls to dispatch childcare teachers to support infant care in vulnerable regions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.