[The Editors' Verdict] Population Density and Low Birth Rate

Investing in Myself, Not My Children, in Overcrowded Environments
Concerns That Mega Seoul May Fuel Overcrowding

In a research report released last month by the Bank of Korea regarding low birth rates, a notable point is that the higher the population density, the greater the pressure from competition, leading to fewer children being born. Regional birth rates are roughly inversely proportional to population density and several conditions stemming from it.

Population density is a relatively rarely mentioned keyword in discussions surrounding low birth rates. However, this issue has been seriously addressed in academia for several years, though unfortunately it has not received much attention. An example is a paper co-authored three years ago by demographer Professor Cho Young-tae of Seoul National University and evolutionary biologist Professor Jang Dae-ik of Gachon University titled "Population Density as a Determinant of Korea’s Total Fertility Rate."

The purpose of the study was to determine, through various statistical analysis tools, whether the correlation between population density and fertility rate remains significant even after controlling for other social structural variables?that is, to what extent population density itself influences childbirth.

The study found that conditions commonly cited as causes of low birth rates, such as childcare environment, private education infrastructure, personal income, inflation, and housing price increases, had surprisingly little or negligible influence, whereas population density was proven to have a very clear impact as an independent factor. This is the first domestic study to examine the relationship between population density and childbirth using social science analytical methods.

Reference image / Crowds filling the subway platform / Photo by Yongjun Cho jun21@

Since the enactment of the "Framework Act on Low Birth Rate and Aging Society" in 2005, the government has poured over 300 trillion won into improving childcare environments. The result today is a countdown to a total fertility rate entering the 0.6 range.

The two authors say this is both a policy failure and, more fundamentally, a natural evolutionary outcome. In high population density environments, it is easier to postpone childbirth and decide to invest in oneself. Since most unmarried youth and newlyweds inevitably live in overcrowded areas, this trend intensifies, leading to an overall decrease in births and a population cliff.

Therefore, the foundation of future prescriptions for Korea’s low birth rate must maintain and develop the normative functions embedded in existing low birth rate policies, while explicitly recognizing that promoting regional balanced development to alleviate overcrowding is a prerequisite, and that balanced development is essentially a population strategy.

It is, of course, important to refine, inherit, or develop the balanced development policies already in place and to step on the accelerator where necessary. If this is a long-term task, the urgent practical matter is to identify and curb elements that hinder balanced development and induce overcrowding, and to reorganize them.

For example, the Mega Seoul plan to incorporate Gimpo, Guri, and Namyangju into Seoul raises considerable concerns that, considering the current economic and social structure, it is more likely to result in the entrenchment of overcrowding rather than an expansion of value. The economic effects of megacities like Tokyo in Japan and New York in the United States are often cited, but it is also pointed out that these effects are safe and effective only when supported by a multipolar structure with several influential and competitive cities besides these.

It is difficult to find a magic wand to suppress or resolve population overcrowding while expanding Seoul, which has the most severe low birth rate at a total fertility rate in the 0.5 range and the largest population concentration. While positive expectations and prospects for such effects cannot be ignored, from the perspective of the low birth rate issue and population theory, this is a precarious idea and not reasonably considered a priority task.

Kim Hyo-jin, Head of Strategic Planning Team hjn2529@asiae.co.kr

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.