Busan Expo Fate Decided Early Tomorrow... Could Meloni, Italian PM's Absence Be a Dark Horse?

Tense Final Competition for Busan Expo Hosting
Narrowed Down to Two-Way Race Due to Italian Prime Minister's Absence
Decision Expected Around 00:30 on the 29th

The host city for the 2030 World Expo, which South Korea’s Busan has bid for, will be decided in the early hours of the 29th. So far, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, backed by 'oil money,' is considered the frontrunner, but Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s decision not to attend the Paris International Exhibition (BIE) has emerged as a dark horse.

Rome, Italy, was a competing candidate alongside Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh and South Korea’s Busan. If Prime Minister Meloni’s absence is interpreted by BIE member countries as a ‘midway withdrawal’ from the Expo, the competition could narrow from a three-way race to a two-way contest. As the race is extremely close, the direction of Italy’s votes in the first and second rounds of voting, expected around midnight on the 29th (Korean time), is anticipated to be a decisive late factor.

Italy’s Chances Dim, Deputy Foreign Minister Sent Instead of Prime Minister

On the 27th (local time), a day before the host city vote, Italian daily La Repubblica reported, “Prime Minister Meloni will not go to Paris, France, where the Expo host city will be decided tomorrow, and will remain in Rome.” The Italian government dispatched Maria Tripodi, Deputy Foreign Minister, as the government representative to the BIE General Assembly in Paris instead of the Prime Minister. Sending a deputy minister rather than the foreign minister significantly lowered the level of representation. As Italy’s chances of winning the Expo dimmed, there is an interpretation that the Prime Minister’s attendance at the BIE General Assembly was deemed meaningless and that this was a ‘white flag surrender.’

South Korea has pursued a bid strategy aiming to ‘block Saudi Arabia by two-thirds or more’ in the first round of voting and to ‘absorb Italian votes’ in the second round. However, Italy’s lukewarm response to the Expo bid negotiations, despite completing the bid race, has complicated the vote calculations further. Votes from European Union (EU) member countries excluding France, which Italy secured, and many African countries could shift from abstentions to swing votes. Italy is also known to have support from the United States, Brazil, Slovenia, and Haiti. The problem is that it is unpredictable whether Italy’s votes will go to Saudi Arabia or South Korea.

Negotiations Intensify Against the Clock... Extremely Tight Until the End

On the 24th, ahead of the announcement of the host city for the 2030 World Expo, promotional materials wishing for a successful bid were installed at Busan Station. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

Inside and around Paris, where the BIE General Assembly is held, the competition is so fierce that it is called ‘the most intense Expo bidding battle ever.’ On the 27th (local time), a day before the host city vote, the South Korean government, business sector, and Busan city formed a ‘triangular squad’ in Paris, France, engaging in intense negotiations against the clock. The Prime Minister’s Office explained in a press release that the 17-month-long external bid negotiation journey, which began with the launch of the bid committee in July last year and involved circling the Earth 495 times in understanding the district, would conclude that day.

Saudi Arabia, alarmed by South Korea’s fierce pursuit, is tightening its vote management. Especially concerned that countries that had supported them might change their minds in the second round of voting, they are reportedly exercising extreme vote control. Saudi Arabia is pressuring countries to send additional representatives from their home countries besides their ambassadors in Paris, based on the rule that each member country can have three representatives in the BIE General Assembly hall.

Decision Expected as Early as 12:30 AM KST on the 29th

The BIE General Assembly will be conducted by anonymous voting of 182 member countries and will start at 9 AM local time at the Palais des Congr?s in Paris. The morning session will cover BIE’s own agenda, and the procedure for selecting the 2030 Expo host city will begin around 1:30 PM with the fifth competitive presentation. Busan, Rome, and Riyadh will each present for 20 minutes in that order. After a break of about 20 minutes, the BIE member country voting delegation will re-enter the assembly hall around 3 PM, with identity verification expected to take about 40 minutes. Only member countries that have paid their contributions can vote. Currently, 179 member countries have paid their contributions and hold voting rights, one country’s voting status is uncertain, and the remaining two countries are unlikely to vote due to domestic and international circumstances.

Assuming up to 180 countries participate in the vote, if a country obtains two-thirds (120 votes or more) in the first round, it will be immediately confirmed as the 2030 Expo host city. Otherwise, a second runoff vote will be held between the top two countries, and the country with the majority will be selected as the host. The total voting time for both rounds is expected to be up to 20 minutes. If the voting proceeds smoothly, the final result is expected around 4:30 PM local time, or about 12:30 AM on the 29th Korean time. However, due to the large number of BIE member countries, unexpected variables could delay the voting process, and the final result might come out in the early morning of the 29th Korean time (around 2 AM).

Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk-yeol said in his opening remarks at the Cabinet meeting that day, “Over the past year and a half, as we have run toward the Busan Expo, South Korea has gained more friends in the international community, and the world has taken notice of South Korea’s dynamism and potential. We will do our best until the final whistle blows.”

President Yoon Suk-yeol is entering the National Assembly on the 31st to deliver the policy speech on next year's government budget proposal. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.