[Insight & Opinion] China's Democratization and Regime Change as an 'X Event'

In future studies, there is a concept called the ‘X event.’ It refers to an event that has a low probability of occurring and is difficult to predict, but if it actually happens, it can have a significant impact. Representative examples of X events include South Korea’s 1997 foreign exchange crisis, the 2001 U.S. 9/11 attacks, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. All of these events were unforeseen but brought about tremendous ripple effects.

According to complex systems scientist John Casti, X events have no empirical probability distribution and cannot be statistically predicted, but once a critical threshold is crossed, they cause rapid changes. Although statistical analysis or prediction is difficult, there are various signs of X events. In future studies, these signs are explored and analyzed, and their possibilities are presented in the form of scenarios.

The KAIST (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) Future Strategy Research Center, to which the author belongs, is researching various X events. Among them, the area that has been closely observed over the past several years is the possibility of democratization and regime change in China. Several signs related to this have already been observed.

The first sign is that the Chinese economy is entering a long-term recession. While the pandemic and U.S. sanctions on China have had an impact, fundamentally, the Chinese economy is facing systemic limits. The Communist Party-centered ‘top-down’ decision-making structure cannot guarantee economic efficiency and transparency, nor can it be free from ‘corruption.’ The second sign is the increase in income of the Chinese people. As of 2022, China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to be around $12,000. Historically, in any society since modern times, as individual income rises, citizens have demanded more freedom and participation. However, the Chinese Communist Party suppresses these desires and aspirations through strong media and social control. The third sign is President Xi Jinping’s establishment of a long-term dictatorship. In 2018, China amended its constitution to remove term limits for the presidency. This move has heightened dissatisfaction within the elite group of the Chinese Communist Party.

The ‘gunpowder’ for China’s democratization and regime change is sufficiently accumulating. However, it is uncertain what the ‘fuse’ will be that can ignite this gunpowder into a democratization movement and regime change. During the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese citizens dissatisfied with the government’s lockdown policies protested across the country, chanting slogans for freedom, democracy, and human rights. The protests were suppressed by the Chinese public security’s harsh crackdown and did not develop into a full-fledged democratization movement.

China has already experienced a fierce democratization movement known as the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. The incident began with the death of former General Secretary Hu Yaobang and protests mourning his death. On October 27, former Premier Li Keqiang suddenly passed away. Although movements to mourn former Premier Li arose throughout China, they have not yet led to large-scale protests like the Tiananmen incident. The death of former Premier Li could become one fuse leading to China’s democratization and regime change, or another fuse may emerge.

China’s regime change and democratization can be considered a significant X event that will have a tremendous impact on the Korean Peninsula. Although it is unknown when this will happen, it is necessary to prepare various scenarios and strategic response plans.

Seoyongseok, Professor at KAIST Graduate School of Culture Technology and Future Strategy

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.