NIS Claims Ignorance of 'Forced Repatriation to China'... Criticism of "Selective Incompetence"

Director of the National Intelligence Service: "Did Not Know in Advance About Forced Repatriation Incident"
Opposition Criticizes Intelligence Capabilities... "Unaware of Scale of North Korean Defectors in China"
"Did They Choose Incompetence Despite Knowing? HUMINT Worse Than Civilians"

Regarding the claim that intelligence about the repatriation of hundreds of North Korean defectors by China on the 9th of last month was provided to intelligence authorities beforehand, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated that it was not aware of this in advance but admitted the need to strengthen its HUMINT capabilities. Criticism has arisen that failing to detect even signs of an organized large-scale repatriation indicates a gap in intelligence capabilities, and there is also speculation that the NIS may have chosen 'selective incompetence' despite foreseeing the repatriation incident.

Kim Young-soo, Professor Emeritus of Political Science and International Relations at Sogang University, said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 2nd, "Even if the NIS knew of the prior signs, it is in a position where it cannot admit knowing them," adding, "Considering future intelligence activities in China and domestic criticism, they made the most defensive choice." He is a leading expert on North Korea and intelligence and was appointed director of the North Korea Research Institute in February this year. The institute was established in November 1971 as an external organization of the Central Intelligence Agency and later converted into a civilian incorporated association, making it the longest-standing North Korea specialized research institution currently in existence.

Kim Kyu-hyun, Director of the National Intelligence Service, is attending the National Assembly Intelligence Committee's audit held at the National Intelligence Service in Naegok-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 1st.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Professor Kim pointed out, "Originally, the NIS does not share the intelligence it obtains with other ministries," and emphasized, "The core issue is that, regardless of the specificity of the intelligence, it was not organically shared with relevant ministries such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification." He added, "This issue should be resolved by Yongsan (the Presidential Office), but they only verbally shout 'human rights' without demanding concrete changes and roles," and asserted, "China will continue forced repatriations, and structurally, our intelligence agencies and ministries are currently unable to prevent this, and nothing will change."

Earlier, Lee Young-hwan, former head of the Transitional Justice Working Group (TJWG), stated in an interview with this publication on the 31st of last month, citing sources, that "Two days before China repatriated about 500 North Korean defectors, the NIS was provided with information indicating 'signs of a large-scale repatriation,' but they did not activate HUMINT (human intelligence networks) or actively assess the situation." Lee introduced the source as a reliable figure who has rescued thousands of North Korean defectors since the late 1990s and exchanges information with key figures such as the UN Special Rapporteur on North Korean Human Rights.

At the closed National Assembly Intelligence Committee hearing held at the NIS the previous day, committee members repeatedly questioned the report. Yoo Sang-beom, the ruling party's ranking member of the Intelligence Committee, identified the 'role of the NIS in the forced repatriation incident' as one of the main issues during the briefing on the audit results.

Yoo said, "Many Democratic Party members questioned whether the NIS had prior knowledge of the forced repatriation incident, but the NIS director answered that they did not know in advance," and added, "Concerns were raised about whether intelligence activities in China have weakened." Opposition party ranking member Yoon Gun-young added, "When asked if they knew the total number of defectors in China, they said they did not, and regarding the forced repatriation incident, they said there was 'no concrete intelligence,'" clarifying that the NIS did not deny that intelligence had been obtained.

Has China's Intelligence Network Collapsed? NIS to Strengthen HUMINT Capabilities

There is criticism that even if the NIS did not detect actual signs of forced repatriation of defectors, it is difficult to avoid blame. This is because they did not pursue further investigation citing the 'specificity' of the intelligence and officially acknowledged gaps in their intelligence capabilities regarding China. A former intelligence official, assuming the NIS's stated position is true, said, "Just consider the hundreds of defectors, the public security personnel involved, and dozens of vehicles," and criticized, "Not detecting movements of this scale can only mean that the intelligence network has completely collapsed."

The official also pointed out the impact of personnel changes during the previous administration, which pursued a pro-China and pro-North Korea stance, saying, "Even if HUMINT is built over many years, once it collapses, it is very difficult to restore it to its previous state." He continued, "If intelligence capabilities in accessible China have become worse than those of civilian organizations, how are they collecting intelligence on North Korea, which is physically unreachable?" and expressed concern, "The defeat of Mossad (Israel's intelligence agency) by Hamas's low-level conventional surprise attack is not just someone else's story."

Yoon Jae-ok, floor leader of the People Power Party, also criticized at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly that day, saying, "The collapse of the core HUMINT network during the previous government is the reason for the NIS's failure to detect prior information about the forced repatriation incident," and added, "There were criticisms that the NIS lost much of its international intelligence function and degraded into a mere administrative agency, and this problem was ultimately revealed in this (forced repatriation) incident." He urged, "It has been revealed that there is a huge hole in the intelligence network on China. The NIS must promptly restore this function."

Meanwhile, the NIS reported at the audit the previous day that "there is a possibility of additional repatriations of defectors by China," and "taking lessons from the failure of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, we plan to strengthen our HUMINT capabilities."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.