Poland Sees Power Shift After 8 Years... Opposition Expected to Secure Majority

The political landscape in Poland is reaching a turning point after 8 years. The opposition coalition has succeeded in securing a majority in the lower house general election, making a regime change likely for the first time in 8 years.

According to major foreign media on the 15th (local time), exit polls by the polling agency Ipsos at 9 p.m. showed that the ruling nationalist conservative party, Law and Justice Party (PiS), received only 36.8% of the vote, failing to secure a majority. The far-right party sharing nationalist values, the Confederation Liberty and Independence, also garnered only 6.2%, making it impossible for the two parties to form a coalition government with a majority.

On the other hand, the opposition coalition is expected to secure a majority. The Civic Coalition (PO), which unified minor parties that decided to form a coalition government, is projected to receive 31.6%, the Third Way (PSL) 13.0%, and the New Left 8.6%, totaling 53.2%, making a majority highly likely.

The Polish lower house has a total of 460 seats, and securing more than 230 seats is required for a majority. According to exit polls, the opposition coalition is expected to secure 248 seats, comfortably achieving a majority. Meanwhile, even if the ruling Law and Justice Party and Confederation Liberty and Independence form a coalition government, they will have only 212 seats.

Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Coalition and head of the opposition coalition, declared victory, saying, "Democracy has won. The era of the Law and Justice Party has come to an end." Jarosław Kaczy?ski, leader of the Law and Justice Party, stated, "It is uncertain whether the opposition's victory will translate into a full term."

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Since the nationalist conservative Law and Justice Party came to power in 2015, Poland has faced strong criticism from the EU for undermining the rule of law, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion regulations, and anti-immigration policies. Many Poles considered this election as important as the 1989 general election that gave birth to democracy after decades of communism, according to the AP news agency.

US broadcaster CNN reported that the election results could affect the balance of power between Poland and the EU, as well as the war in Ukraine. In May, Poland opposed the EU's push to import Ukrainian grain and extended its import ban. This led to conflicts with Ukraine, and last month Poland announced a suspension of additional weapons support.

The Law and Justice Party's approval ratings steadily declined from 44% in 2019 to 30% just before the election due to unprecedented inflation, economic crisis, allegations of collusion between politics and business, and worsening conflicts with the EU.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.