Political Circles Hold Their Breath Over Gangseo-gu Office Election Results... Fierce Aftershocks Expected

10 AM Voter Turnout 7.1%
Combined Highest By-Election Turnout Ever 29.7%
If One Side Wins Unilaterally, the Losing Side Faces 'Turbulence'

The main vote for the Seoul Gangseo District Mayor by-election, regarded as a preliminary battle ahead of next April's general election, began at 6 a.m. on the 11th. Voting will take place until 8 p.m. at 131 polling stations within Gangseo District, and the final results, including early voting, are expected around midnight. Depending on the election outcome, which pits the ruling party's regional development argument against the opposition's call for regime judgment, the power dynamics between the ruling and opposition parties are expected to be shaken. It is also anticipated to influence the direction of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration's national governance.

According to the National Election Commission, the voter turnout as of 10 a.m. on the day was 7.1%. This is lower than the 9.1% turnout recorded in this area during the Seoul mayoral by-election on April 7, 2021. However, when combined with the highest-ever early voting rate (22.64%) among past by-elections, the current actual turnout (main vote + early voting) stands at 29.7%, which is quite high. During the 2021 by-election, the turnout in Gangseo District at 10 a.m. (main vote + early voting) was 30.6%. If a similar enthusiasm as the 2021 by-election (Gangseo District turnout 56.4%) continues, a turnout in the 50% range is also expected.

On the 11th, the day of the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo-gu, Seoul, voters are casting their ballots at the 9th polling station in Banghwa 1-dong, Gangseo-gu, Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Although this Gangseo District Mayor election is a by-election to elect one basic local government head, it has attracted political attention as it provides an opportunity to gauge public sentiment in the metropolitan area six months ahead of next year's general election. The People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea concentrated their efforts on the election campaign to the extent of assigning members of the National Assembly by neighborhood units.

In political circles, it is believed that a higher voter turnout in this election would be more advantageous to the opposition party. Therefore, if the People Power Party overturns expectations and wins, the Democratic Party is expected to face accountability.

If the Democratic Party wins, the margin of votes between the ruling and opposition parties will be crucial. If the People Power Party loses by a single-digit percentage point, it is likely to conclude with an evaluation of "Jjeotjalsa (lost but fought well)," serving as a warning light regarding metropolitan public sentiment. Especially since it is widely observed that President Yoon Seok-yeol's intentions are reflected in the Gangseo District Mayor election, it is expected that it will be difficult to raise accountability within the ruling party.

However, political circles predict that if the People Power Party loses by a double-digit margin, there is a high possibility that accountability will be raised against the party leadership, including People Power Party leader Kim Ki-hyun. Responsibility may be questioned for the ruling party nominating a candidate in this by-election, which they caused, and for allowing candidate Kim Tae-woo to participate in the primary and ultimately being selected as the final candidate. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy stated, "If the People Power Party suffers a significant defeat, there will be backlash from metropolitan area lawmakers and out-of-office party committee chairpersons preparing for next year's general election," adding, "Depending on the election results, President Yoon Seok-yeol's style of national governance may also change."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.