US House Speaker Re-elected Amid Israel-Palestine War...Republican Party Faces Urgent Pressure

Republicans to Present House Speaker Candidate Platforms on 10th
Uncertainty Over Whether Full House Vote Will Proceed as Scheduled
Israel Support Unclear Amid US Congress Turmoil

As the war between Israel and Palestine intensifies following airstrikes by the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, the Republican Party, which is in the process of re-electing the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is moving urgently. Without a Speaker, the House is practically unable to carry out any legislative procedures, making it difficult to handle urgent matters such as military support for Israel.

However, within the Republican Party, there is no clear leading candidate, and it is also not easy to secure the 'magic number' of 217 votes, a majority in the full House vote including the Democrats, so it is expected that the actual election may take some time.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Jordan vs Scalise 'Two-Way Battle'... McCarthy Withdraws from Re-election

According to CNN and others on the 10th (local time), the Republican Party held a forum in the afternoon for candidates running for the next Speaker of the House to present their platforms. This marked the first step in selecting a successor after Republican Kevin McCarthy was abruptly removed from the Speaker position on the 3rd, a first in the 234-year history of the U.S. Congress.

Currently, the race is between two official candidates: Jim Jordan (Ohio, 59), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and a Republican, and Steve Scalise (Louisiana, 57), the House Republican Whip.

Jordan is a founding member of the hardline group 'Freedom Caucus' that led the recent rebellion and is supported by the hardline faction within the Republican Party. Some worry that his hardline image may raise doubts among moderate Republicans about his suitability as Speaker. Jordan entered the House in 2006, became Judiciary Committee chairman in January, and is known for his pro-Trump stance.

Republican Judiciary Committee Chairman Representative Jim Jordan (right in the photo) and Republican House Majority Whip Steve Scalise Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Scalise, the House Republican Whip, is the second-ranking Republican in the House after former Speaker McCarthy. Having entered Congress in 2008, he has been frequently mentioned as a potential Speaker candidate and enjoys strong support within the party. Politically, he is considered more conservative than McCarthy. However, concerns about his health have arisen as he survived a shooting at a baseball practice in 2017 and was recently diagnosed with blood cancer.

According to NBC News, while Scalise has gained some support from moderate right-wing and swing district lawmakers, Jordan has secured backing from various conservative factions and former President Trump.

Until the day before, McCarthy, who was removed from the position, had hinted at a possible re-election bid after reversing his previous stance. However, as soon as the platform presentation forum began, he left the venue, stating he had no intention to run and asked colleagues not to nominate him. When asked by reporters whom he would vote for between Jordan and Scalise, he said, "I will vote for whoever emerges among them," but emphasized that the election should not proceed until the Republicans secure a majority.

Republican House Representative Kevin McCarthy
[Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

The Washington Post (WP) described the situation as "three 'nine-term' lawmakers who have worked together for about 16 years clashing publicly to determine the direction of House Republicans." WP reported that Jordan and Scalise fiercely campaigned at the forum to become the next Speaker, while McCarthy attempted a last-minute re-election bid but announced he would not run 30 hours after related rumors surfaced.

Will the Full House Vote Proceed as Scheduled on the 11th?

The Republican Party initially planned to hold the candidate platform presentations and make a final decision on the 10th, followed by a full House vote on the 11th. However, it is uncertain whether the schedule will proceed as planned. Even if a candidate is selected, there is significant uncertainty in the process of electing the Speaker through a full House vote.

The Speaker is elected by a majority vote of all House members, so generally, the majority party produces the Speaker. However, the current seat difference between Republicans (221) and Democrats (212) is narrow, and about 20 hardliners within the Republican Party could disrupt the election, so foreign media assess that even if the Republicans nominate a candidate, there is no guarantee that the candidate will secure the majority of 217 votes.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, "Republicans have yet to resolve important questions such as how their candidate will secure the 217 votes needed to win the full House election and how to push through a new budget after the temporary budget expires in mid-next month."

As a result, many Republican lawmakers are reportedly struggling to decide whom to nominate. Few have publicly voiced support for any specific candidate.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Given the situation, Republican lawmakers attending the candidate platform forum expressed uncertainty about whether a candidate would be decided by the 11th. Republican Representative Mike Garcia (California) said as he left the forum, "I don't know if there will be a candidate by tomorrow morning. Right now, I see the odds as 50-50."

Need to Support Israel... Criticism of 'House Paralysis'

The Republican leadership is expected to be anxious about selecting a Speaker candidate. Just four days after McCarthy was removed, Hamas launched airstrikes on Israel on the 7th, creating urgent issues such as military support for Israel that need immediate discussion in Congress.

The Biden administration has already declared military support for Israel. President Biden requested Congress to authorize emergency measures to assist the security interests of allies and partners. Bipartisan leadership in Congress has also raised their voices in support of Israel, and over 390 House members have signed a letter stating the need to support Israel.

The New York Times (NYT) reported, "While there is a consensus in Congress to support Israel, it is uncertain where a leaderless and divided House will head."

On the 10th (local time), U.S. President Joe Biden (center in the photo) is speaking regarding the attack by the Palestinian armed faction Hamas on Israel.
[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

However, the general interpretation is that for the House to approve support for Israel, the elected Speaker must have the authority to bring bills to the floor.

Since McCarthy's removal, his close aide, Representative Patrick McHenry (Republican, North Carolina), has served as acting Speaker, but there is debate over whether the acting Speaker holds this authority. Since this is the first time a Speaker has been removed in Congress, there is no precedent, and legal interpretations vary.

Some argue that the acting Speaker has only limited powers and cannot bring bills to the floor. Others interpret that the acting Speaker can proceed with any matter agreed upon by the majority of House members without issue.

As the House is unable to respond immediately to the sudden war situation due to the Speaker vacancy, criticism is growing toward the hardline Republicans who led the removal. It is pointed out that a single representative could propose the motion to remove the Speaker, which actually led to the Speaker's removal and effectively paralyzed the House.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.