Dry Seoul Jeonse Listings in Autumn Moving Season Drop to Around 20,000 Units (Comprehensive)

Sharp Decline from 50,000 Units Earlier This Year
Concerns Over Jeonse Instability as Seoul's Housing Supply Decreases Next Year

Although the autumn moving season is approaching, the supply of Seoul apartment jeonse listings is drying up. Due to the aftermath of jeonse fraud and high interest rates, the number of listings, which reached around 50,000 earlier this year, plummeted to the 20,000 range in October. Next year's Seoul move-in volume is also expected to be halved compared to this year, signaling a 'red light' for the stabilization of Seoul's jeonse prices.

According to Apartment Real Transaction Price (Asil), a real estate big data company, as of the previous day, the total number of Seoul apartment jeonse listings was 29,026. The jeonse listings had remained in the 30,000 range since May but dropped to the 20,000 range (29,831 listings) on the 1st of this month and have continued to decline since.

Seoul's jeonse listings accumulated to around 55,000 in December last year due to the widespread jeonse fraud nationwide and the impact of high interest rates, which led to a clear preference for monthly rent. Since then, as monthly rent prices rose and interest rates stabilized, the listings began to decrease rapidly. From 40,000 in February to 30,000 in May, the listings sharply declined and entered the 20,000 range in October, gradually revealing a bottom. This is the first time since July 2022 that Seoul apartment jeonse listings have fallen to the 20,000 range.

Accordingly, the jeonse prices, which had been falling relentlessly, have now hit bottom and are rebounding. According to the Korea Real Estate Board, Seoul apartment jeonse prices have been rising for 19 consecutive weeks since the fourth week of May. Recently, the rate of increase has also been growing. The rise rate, which was around 0.03?0.09% in July, reached 0.17?0.20% in September. The government's easing of loan regulations for landlords unable to return jeonse deposits also acted as a catalyst for the jeonse price rebound.

In fact, in central Seoul, it is not difficult to find cases where jeonse prices have jumped by 200 to 300 million KRW within a few months. For example, the jeonse actual transaction price for Mapo Raemian Prugio 84C㎡ in Ahyeon-dong, Mapo-gu, rose from 700 million KRW at the beginning of this year to 950 million KRW in September. Similarly, Oksoo Park Hills 84B㎡ in Oksu-dong, Seongdong-gu, surged from 730 million KRW in January to 940 million KRW in September.

In the market, concerns are growing that despite recent government supply measures, the shortage of move-in volume could intensify instability in the jeonse market. Ham Young-jin, head of the Zigbang Big Data Lab, said, "Seoul apartment move-in volume will be halved from 30,000 units this year to 15,000 units next year. Even if the reduced move-in volume in Gyeonggi-do and Incheon offsets this, jeonse prices in Seoul are likely to continue rising for the time being."

Meanwhile, concerns have also been raised that despite government supply measures, the decrease in permits and construction starts could lead to jeonse instability nationwide, not just in Seoul, for the coming years.

According to the ‘August Housing Statistics’ released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the nationwide housing permit volume from January to August this year was 212,757 households, a 38.8% decrease compared to the same period last year (347,458 households). The decline rate expanded compared to the 29.9% decrease in permits from January to July. Among these, apartment permits were 180,207 households, down 36.3%. During the same period, construction starts also sharply dropped to 113,892 households, a 56.4% decrease compared to 261,193 households in the previous year. Nationwide apartment construction starts were 86,193 households, down 56.7%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.