[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] This Year Marks the 75th Anniversary of North Korea-Russia Diplomatic Relations... Will a Big Event Occur?

North Korea Establishes First Diplomatic Relations with Soviet Union in 1948
Relations with Soviet Union Neglected Briefly as China-Russia Relations Worsen
Exchanges Expand Including Summits Since Kim Jong Un's Rise to Power

As North Korea and Russia mark the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations this year, there are growing expectations that their military exchanges will become more active as they reaffirm their blood alliance.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The relationship between North Korea and Russia dates back to 1948. At that time, shortly after liberation, Chairman Kim Il-sung of North Korea seized power with the help of the Soviet military administration and officially took office. The first country to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea was the Soviet Union. In the 1960s, through treaties such as the "Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance between North Korea and the Soviet Union," the "Military Assistance Agreement," and the "Agreement on Technical and Economic Cooperation," North Korea received military aid and economic support from the Soviet Union, maintaining a long-standing blood alliance.

However, the relationship between the two countries cooled as North Korea adopted a so-called "equidistant diplomacy," distancing itself from the Soviet Union amid the Sino-Soviet split. Relations further deteriorated when the Soviet Union participated in the 1988 Seoul Olympics despite North Korea's opposition and established diplomatic ties with South Korea in 1990. Ultimately, in 1995, the "Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance between North Korea and the Soviet Union," which had served as the basis for the alliance between Russia and North Korea, was abolished.

Then, on February 9, 2000, the "North Korea-Russia Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighborliness, and Cooperation" (known as the "New Treaty"), which aimed to establish a new relationship as economic cooperation partners, was signed. Later that year, in July, President Vladimir Putin became the first Russian leader to visit Pyongyang, signaling signs of a relationship recovery.

Chairman Kim Jong-il Announces the ‘North Korea-Russia Moscow Declaration’

Chairman Kim Jong-il also officially visited Russia in July 2001, establishing a cooperative system in diplomacy and economy with Russia and announcing the "North Korea-Russia Moscow Declaration." The North Korea-Russia relationship has become closer since Chairman Kim Jong-un took power. On April 25, 2019, Kim held the first North Korea-Russia summit with President Putin, agreeing to expand exchanges and revitalize economic cooperation projects between the two countries.

Last year alone, the two leaders exchanged letters and congratulatory messages on various occasions, including the 22nd anniversary of the North Korea-Russia Joint Declaration (July 19), the 21st anniversary of the North Korea-Russia Moscow Declaration (August 4), Liberation Day (August 15), the 20th anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong-il’s visit to the Russian Far East (August 21), the 74th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime (September 9), President Putin’s 70th birthday (October 7), and the 74th anniversary of North Korea-Russia diplomatic relations (October 12).

In July last year, North Korea also recognized the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), separatist regions in eastern Ukraine with pro-Russian leanings. Besides Russia, only Syria and North Korea have recognized the independence of the DPR and LPR worldwide. North Korea is also in talks with Russia and others about involving its workers in the reconstruction projects of the DPR and LPR.

Accordingly, North Korea’s active support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and declaration of territorial annexation is analyzed as a move to break diplomatic isolation and seek economic breakthroughs.

There have been indications that North Korea sold weapons to the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company involved in the Ukraine war. Under the understanding of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," North Korea and Russia are accelerating their strategic alliance by positioning the United States as a common adversary more than ever. The continuous disclosure by the U.S. of information that North Korea is supplying weapons to Russia, beyond just siding with Russia from the early stages of the Ukraine war, is cited as an example of the close ties between North Korea and Russia. Conversely, Russia has also supported North Korea by opposing additional sanctions at the United Nations Security Council against North Korea’s provocations, such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

Acceleration of Strategic Alliance under the Kim Jong-un Regime

Rail freight transport between the two countries, which had been suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, resumed in November last year after a hiatus of two years and eight months. Experts view the Ukraine war as a driving force for a qualitative leap in North Korea-Russia relations.

In its "2023 Situation Focus" report, the Korea Institute for National Security Strategy stated, "As Russia blatantly attempts to 'reshape' the international order through this war, the two countries have come to share the goal of building a clearer anti-American alliance," adding, "Moreover, both countries face comprehensive and high-intensity sanctions from the U.S. and the West, accelerating their strategic alliance and close cooperation to break free from these constraints."

There is a prevailing view that military cooperation will become even stronger following North Korea’s visit to Russia. During his visit, Chairman Kim Jong-un included in his delegation Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, along with the top two military officials: Ri Pyong-chol, Vice Chairman of the Party Central Military Commission, and Pak Jong-chon, Director of the Party’s Military Leadership Department. Also accompanying the delegation are Pak Tae-sung, Party Secretary and Chairman of the National Emergency Space Science and Technology Committee established for military reconnaissance satellite launches; Kim Myong-sik, Navy Commander and a key figure in securing nuclear-powered submarine technology; and Jo Chun-ryong, Party Director of the Military Industry Department. These figures are expected to be central in discussions on arms deals during the North Korea-Russia summit.

Some express growing concerns that North Korea-Russia cooperation will not be limited to exchanging conventional weapons and food. Victor Cha, Deputy Director for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Korea Chair, pointed out in a commentary published on the 6th (local time) that "North Korea-Russia cooperation could expand to advanced technologies such as satellites, nuclear-powered submarines, and ballistic missiles." In a media interview, he further argued, "If North Korea supplies weapons to Russia, it implies that South Korea might be willing to provide anything it wants to Ukraine," suggesting that North Korea-Russia arms deals could justify South Korea’s support of lethal weapons to Ukraine.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.