Fiscal soundness shaken by 60 trillion won tax revenue shortfall... Tax revenue re-estimation to be announced soon

This year, national tax revenue is expected to fall short by around 60 trillion won compared to previous estimates. Due to poor corporate earnings, including in the semiconductor sector, corporate tax payments have sharply declined, and asset-related tax revenues have also significantly decreased, making the largest-ever tax revenue shortfall inevitable.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance on the 10th, the Tax Policy Division will release the results of the 'tax revenue re-estimation' as early as this week. This figure reflects the corporate tax interim payments due by the end of August.

Although the government is known to regularly monitor and update tax revenue trends internally, it generally does not make these updates public. This measure is interpreted as a response to the extraordinary situation where tax revenue shortfalls have become the biggest concern in fiscal management this year.

From January to July this year, national tax revenue amounted to 217.6 trillion won, down 43.4 trillion won compared to the same period last year. Considering the current trend, it is difficult to avoid a tax revenue shortfall exceeding 50 trillion won. Previously, in 2021 and 2022, tax revenues exceeded the original budget by 6.13 trillion won and 5.26 trillion won, respectively.

Both inside and outside the government expect the national tax revenue shortfall to reach about 60 trillion won. If a 'revenue gap' of approximately 60 trillion won occurs, this year's national tax revenue forecast will be revised downward from 400.5 trillion won to around 340 trillion won.

In the '2024 National Tax Revenue Budget' submitted to the National Assembly on the 1st, the Ministry of Economy and Finance projected total national tax revenue for next year at 367.4 trillion won. Although this is about 33 trillion won less than this year's forecast (400.5 trillion won), it represents an increase of up to 30 trillion won compared to the re-estimated figure reduced by about 60 trillion won.

The Ministry's medium-term fiscal revenue outlook projects annual increases of 20 to 30 trillion won, with 401.3 trillion won in 2025, 423.2 trillion won in 2026, and 444.9 trillion won in 2027. The Ministry of Economy and Finance expects national tax revenue to rise again next year due to economic recovery, as stated in the national tax revenue budget.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.