American Scholar: "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Actually Stabilize the Korean Peninsula... Denuclearization Is Difficult"

Mearsheimer: "North Korea Won't Give Up Nuclear Weapons
...But Strong US Extended Deterrence Will Prevent Their Use"
Scholars Emphasize "Need for Dialogue Efforts" and Dual Approach

A leading American scholar expressed the view that the Korean Peninsula has actually become safer due to North Korea's nuclear armament. Assuming that North Korea is unlikely to actually use nuclear weapons, this is interpreted as an assessment that the U.S. extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats has achieved a 'balance.' Experts from around the world advised that trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan should be pursued not only for security cooperation but also to bring North Korea to the negotiating table.

John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, stated in his keynote speech at the '2023 Korea Peninsula International Forum' held on the 30th at the Westin Chosun Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul, "Most observers believe that North Korea's nuclear armament is the cause of instability in Northeast Asia, but this is wrong," and argued, "In fact, a nuclear-armed North Korea is more likely to stabilize the Korean Peninsula than one without nuclear weapons."

North Korea Nuclear-U.S. Extended Deterrence Balance... "North Korea Will Not Give Up Nuclear Weapons"

John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is delivering the keynote speech at the '2023 Korea Peninsula International Forum' held on the 30th at the Westin Chosun Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Heejun Jang junh@

He explained, "Many believe that North Korea will exploit South Korea's lack of nuclear weapons to use nuclear weapons as a means of coercion, but this claim is not true," adding, "While nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent, history has shown that they are useless for coercing an enemy during peacetime." In other words, although North Korea may use nuclear weapons as a threat, the likelihood of actual use is low.

He continued, "Some think North Korea will gain military advantages against the South with nuclear weapons, but considering the large U.S. forces and their families stationed in South Korea, the possibility of this scenario is very low," and added, "Moreover, the U.S. has expressed a strong commitment to extended deterrence, meaning that if North Korea attacks South Korea, the U.S. is likely to retaliate with nuclear weapons. This provides sufficient deterrence."

Professor Mearsheimer asserted that North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons. He diagnosed, "South Korea and the U.S. have made many efforts over the past 18 years to achieve North Korea's denuclearization, but the possibility of change is very low," and explained, "North Korea is in a dangerous region surrounded by great powers, and given the deteriorated U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations, the pressure is unlikely to succeed. This is why denuclearization is bound to fail."

He evaluated that if nuclear weapons disappear from the Korean Peninsula through North Korea's denuclearization, conventional war would become a safer option, but deterrence against conventional weapons is much more difficult to achieve than nuclear deterrence. In other words, the Korean Peninsula has achieved a stable balance through U.S. extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear possession, but if nuclear weapons disappear, the possibility of inter-Korean clashes using conventional weapons and even war breaking out will increase.

"Efforts for Dialogue Needed... Incentives Such as Sanctions Relief Are Necessary"

Government officials and scholars from various countries are discussing "International Cooperation for North Korean Denuclearization" at the "2023 Korea Peninsula International Forum" held on the 30th at the Westin Chosun Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jang Hee-jun junh@

The following session featured a free discussion on the theme of 'International Cooperation for North Korea's Denuclearization.' Chaired by Kim Woo-sang, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Yonsei University, participants included Professor Mearsheimer, Ankit Panda, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Nobumasa Akiyama, Professor of Law at Hitotsubashi University in Japan, Qing Xiaohua, Professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, Thomas Sch?fer, former German Ambassador to North Korea, and Lee Ho-ryeong, Director of the Security Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

Professor Nobumasa Akiyama of Japan diagnosed, "While North Korea has made progress in nuclear development, Russia's invasion of Ukraine occurred, which strongly imprinted the threat from nuclear-armed neighbors on both Japan and South Korea," and added, "This has raised doubts about the credibility of extended deterrence through the U.S. alliance, and as a result, discussions on nuclear sharing and nuclear weapons possession have begun in Japan and South Korea."

He said, "There is growing skepticism within Japan's security community about whether North Korea's denuclearization is a realistic goal." He emphasized, "From North Korea's perspective, it would be difficult to accept an approach where the trilateral cooperation of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan seeks to resolve the North Korean nuclear threat through enhanced deterrence and sanctions pressure. We must adhere to a 'dual approach' principle that combines maximum efforts to bring North Korea to the negotiating table."

Professor Qing Xiaohua of China pointed out the limitations of the 'Bold Initiative,' which has failed to bring North Korea to the dialogue table. He evaluated, "The Bold Initiative of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is somewhat more ambitious and concrete compared to the 'Denuclearization, Openness, 3000' policy of the Lee Myung-bak administration," and added, "It includes various reciprocal measures such as food programs and reflects South Korea's willingness to promote denuclearization using its economic power and technological capabilities."

However, he pointed out, "The realization of this initiative depends on one premise: 'North Korea's response,' but North Korea has shown no interest in nuclear negotiations with any country so far and is unlikely to do so in the future." He advised, "To persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, the international community must demonstrate firm resolve. It must show sufficient incentives, including changes to UN sanctions, that can bring North Korea to the negotiating table."

Meanwhile, the Korea Peninsula International Forum is a 1.5-track international conference hosted by the Ministry of Unification since 2010. Its purpose is to gather opinions from government officials and scholars from various countries and reflect them in policies for peace, prosperity, and unification of the Korean Peninsula. This year's event is held under the theme of 'North Korean Nuclear Issue, Human Rights, and Unification,' with sessions on ▲International Cooperation for North Korea's Denuclearization ▲Effective Measures to Improve North Korean Human Rights ▲International Cooperation for Korean Peninsula Unification.

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