"Harder to Give Birth Than During Japanese Invasion" China’s Newborn Numbers Hit Rock Bottom

Chinese Expert: "Newborns This Year in the 7 Million Range"
Lower Than During the 1930s Japanese Invasion
China's Population Declined for the First Time Last Year

Amid growing concerns over population decline, it is projected that the number of newborns in China will fall to the 7 million range this year. This figure is lower than during the Japanese invasion period in the 1930s.

On the 9th (local time), according to Taiwan's Central News Agency and others, Dr. Chao Jie, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and dean of the Beijing University Medical School, attended the ‘2023 Pharmaceutical Innovation and Science & Technology Frontier Forum’ the day before and stated, “Currently, the birth rate among women of childbearing age in China has dropped to a worrying level.”

According to Dr. Chao Jie, the number of newborns in China has sharply declined by about 40% over the past five years, recording 9.56 million last year. This year, it is expected to be around 7 to 8 million, with a continued decrease predicted. This is the first time that an expert from mainland China has speculated that the number of newborns will not reach 8 million.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the annual number of newborns falling below 8 million is the first occurrence since 1939. This period coincided with the eight-year Anti-Japanese War following Japan’s invasion of China in 1931. At that time, the total population was about 400 million, more than three times less than the current population (approximately 1.4 billion).

'Maintaining Birth Restrictions'... The Boomerang of Population Decline

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Since the 1990s, China has faced a continuous decline in birth rates. Last year, China’s birth rate hit a historic low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people, which is half of the rate in 2017. The total fertility rate (the expected number of children a woman of childbearing age will have in her lifetime) also dropped significantly to 1.2 last year, compared to 1.7 in 2017.

China long maintained a strict 'birth restriction' policy. To curb rapid population growth, China introduced the 'one-child policy' in 1979, and families violating this policy were fined 3 to 10 times their annual disposable income depending on the region. Although the policy was somewhat relaxed in 2016 to allow two children, the penalty regulations remained in place.

However, facing the looming population decline crisis, President Xi Jinping belatedly allowed three children in 2021, and last year, social restrictions related to birth control violations were lifted for the first time in over 40 years. Additionally, incentives such as childcare and housing purchase subsidies are being provided to boost the birth rate.

Nevertheless, the birth rate has not risen significantly, and population decline in China is becoming evident. As of December last year, China’s population was 1.41175 billion, marking the first decrease since 1961. According to the United Nations (UN), as of the end of April this year, India’s population reached 1.4286 billion, surpassing China to become the most populous country in the world.

Dr. Chao Jie analyzed, “There are numerous population issues such as a social atmosphere reluctant to have children and a sharp decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Notably, there is a visible increase in various problems compared to before, including rising cases of female infertility and increased incidence of diseases among pregnant women.”

He added, “It is necessary to develop various technologies related to childbirth and infertility treatment, and to reduce cost burdens by domesticating the medical devices used for these purposes. Currently, research results on improving women’s and children’s health and on disease prevention and treatment are insufficient, so investment must be increased.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.