"Putin and Prigozhin Approval Ratings Neck and Neck, Russia on Brink of Civil War" Ukrainian Military Analysis

Director of Ukrainian Military Intelligence Claims 'Russian Internal Conflict'
"Obtained Results from Analysis of Messaging App and SNS Spyware"
"Serious Conflict Expected if Internal Incident Occurs"

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, have comparable approval ratings, leading to an analysis by the Ukrainian military suggesting that "the time for a civil war has come."

On the 5th (local time), according to the British daily The Times, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Defense Ministry Military Intelligence Directorate, stated, "We have obtained information indicating signs of internal division within Russia."

Russian President Vladimir Putin. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Director Budanov said, “An analysis of a secret report from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs revealed an unusual level of public support for Prigozhin.” It is known that this report contained results from analyzing public opinion using spyware implanted in messaging apps and social networking services (SNS).

According to this, it is claimed that the recent armed rebellion led by Prigozhin and President Putin have nearly equal public support. Particular attention was paid to the period around the 24th of last month, when Prigozhin led Wagner Group mercenaries toward Moscow before withdrawing, and the following day.

At that time, out of Russia’s 46 federal subjects, 17 showed more support messages for Prigozhin. Meanwhile, 21 subjects supported Putin, and in the remaining regions, the approval ratings of the two were reportedly similar.

Budanov commented, “This means that Russian society is split into two parts,” adding, “Russia is on the brink of civil war. This is something Ukraine has consistently stated.” He emphasized, “If a small internal ‘incident’ occurs, the conflict will deepen further.”

President Putin visiting Derbent, Dagestan on the 28th of last month, taking photos with citizens. [Image source=Yonhap News]

He pointed out that President Putin relies on support from the capital Moscow rather than his hometown Saint Petersburg. Additionally, in the southern autonomous republic of Dagestan, Prigozhin reportedly enjoys a 97% approval rating, while President Putin records his lowest support there.

These claims have drawn more attention in light of President Putin’s recent actions. On the 28th of last month, Putin visited Dagestan as his first official trip after leaving Moscow.

At that time, he displayed his vitality by taking selfies surrounded by numerous citizens. Some analysts suggest this was a response to the global broadcast of Prigozhin receiving enthusiastic welcome and support from Russian citizens immediately after the coup attempt.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.