Coup Stopped but Putin's Leadership Severely Wounded... Will the Ukraine War End Soon?

Wagner, 24 Hours from Rebellion to Withdrawal
Critical Blow to '21st Century Tsar' Putin's Leadership
Former Soviet Leader's Path to Downfall Despite Quelling Coup
Hope for Early End to War

"Prigozhin's Rebellion Raised Uncomfortable Questions About the Future of the Russian President"

On the 25th (local time), The New York Times (NYT) evaluated the armed rebellion by the Russian mercenary company Wagner in this way. Although this Russian armed rebellion ended as a 'one-day wonder,' President Vladimir Putin's leadership suffered a fatal blow. The civil war caused by his closest aide during the war exposed Putin's weaknesses, leading to expectations of additional rebellion plots and political instability. There is also cautious speculation that the invasion of Ukraine itself may become a self-inflicted threat to the Putin regime, potentially leading to an early end to the war.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Wagner Rebellion Ends as a One-Day Wonder... Putin's Leadership Severely Wounded

On this day, the NYT, citing Russian local journalists, stated, "What was once unimaginable has now become possible," and "With this rebellion, President Putin has decisively lost his status as the guarantor of the wealth and security of the Russian elite." It added, "Putin's failure to prevent the rebellion raises questions about what this means for his stability and maintenance of power."

Earlier, Yevgeny Prigozhin led Wagner in an armed rebellion advancing toward Moscow. After Prigozhin demanded punishment for those responsible, claiming that about 2,000 fighters died in a Russian missile attack on the 23rd, news emerged that Russia would investigate Prigozhin on charges of inciting rebellion. He mobilized 25,000 mercenaries and advanced to the outskirts of Moscow within a day. Through mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin decided to withdraw and head to Belarus, but President Putin had already suffered a significant blow to his leadership.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) assessed, "Wagner's rebellion revealed unexpected vulnerabilities of the Putin regime," and "The authority and self-image of the Russian regime have sustained ongoing damage." Bloomberg News also reported, "The dramatically ended armed uprising became the greatest threat to the Putin regime, which has ruled for nearly 25 years," adding, "During a bewildering 24 hours, global audiences watched as an army loyal to Prigozhin advanced hundreds of miles at a furious pace toward Moscow."

Foreign media particularly evaluated that Prigozhin, who was supposed to be under control as one of Putin's closest aides, went out of control, proving that Putin is no longer a true emperor. Moreover, the decision to send Prigozhin to Belarus without punishment was a blow to Putin's dignity. The scenes of Russians cheering Wagner's advance are seen as signs that public sentiment is also shaken.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Former Soviet Leaders, Even After Suppressing Coups, Faced Eventual Downfall

Western media recalled cases of former Soviet leaders who fell after failed coups in relation to this rebellion. Since President Putin's leadership has also been damaged, there is speculation that he may lose power in the future.

The first case is former President Mikhail Gorbachev. In August 1991, conservative Communist Party members in the former Soviet Union staged a coup, but Boris Yeltsin, then President of the Russian Republic, led anti-coup protests, resulting in the coup's failure. Although Gorbachev regained power afterward, popular support shifted to Yeltsin, and with increasing demands for the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev announced his resignation in December of the same year.

President Yeltsin also faced attempts to overthrow his government during his tenure. In September 1993, political opposition forces, including the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, occupied the parliament building and tried to impeach Yeltsin, but he barely maintained power through military suppression. However, Yeltsin also experienced a decline in approval ratings and eventually resigned abruptly at the end of 1999 with six months left in his term. The person who then assumed presidential duties was Vladimir Putin, then Prime Minister.

U.S. NBC News reported that while President Putin will maintain power for now, looking back at Russian history, even failed coups can have aftershocks.

Impact on the Ukraine War

Attention is also focused on the impact of this Russian rebellion on the Ukraine war. There are gradually emerging hopeful prospects that the war could end early.

On the 25th (local time), the British Sunday Times predicted that the chaos in Russia caused by the Wagner Group's armed rebellion would provide strong momentum to Ukraine. Although Ukraine has not yet achieved a decisive victory in its recent counteroffensive, the temporary withdrawal of Prigozhin and most of his forces from Ukraine could be beneficial, according to analysis. The British Ministry of Defence also assessed that Ukraine is making gradual but steady strategic progress in its counteroffensive.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, "Russia is heading down a path of self-destruction," and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar evaluated, "(Russia's armed rebellion) means a window of opportunity has opened for us."

On the other hand, there is also speculation that President Putin might launch a strong offensive in the Ukraine war to recover from the humiliation caused by the rebellion and demonstrate military superiority. In an interview with state TV released that day, Putin stated, "The top priority is the Ukraine war," and "I receive related reports around the clock." Although this was the first statement from Putin after the rebellion ended, the broadcast was recorded on the 21st.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.