"Peace Through Strength" Yoon's Counter Drill Against Firepower Annihilation? ... North Korea's Intent Behind Missile Launch

On the Day Yoon Oversaw Firepower Annihilation Drill... North Korea Resumes Military Provocation
Abandoning Quick Relaunch of Reconnaissance Satellite? Opportunity to Blame South
North Korean Leadership Faces Complex Calculations Ahead of US Blinken's China Visit

North Korea resumed its military provocations 63 days after launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in April, escalating military tensions once again. While the move appears to be aimed at the South Korea-U.S. joint and combined firepower annihilation exercises presided over by President Yoon Suk-yeol, some analysts believe that North Korea shifted to missile provocations after judging the 'prompt relaunch' of its reconnaissance satellite to be practically difficult.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the 16th, the military authorities detected two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) launched by North Korea from the Sunan area toward the East Sea for about 10 minutes starting at 7:25 p.m. the previous day. The missiles flew approximately 780 km each before landing in the East Sea. This marks North Korea's first missile provocation in 63 days since the test launch of the new solid-fuel-based ICBM 'Hwasong-18' in April.

Tactical Guided Weapon Presumed to Be a 'North Korean Version of Iskander' Missile

Based on flight distance and altitude, the missiles fired by North Korea are evaluated to be an improved version of the KN-23, known as the 'North Korean Iskander.' Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, analyzed, "Judging by the missile specifications, it is expected to be an improved version of the KN-23, and it appears to have been launched at a normal angle rather than a high angle. They aimed to increase the threat level by flying a missile classified as short-range into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)."

This provocation was targeted at the South Korea-U.S. joint and combined firepower annihilation exercises. Although the exercises have been ongoing since the end of last month, the timing was precisely aimed at the moment presided over by President Yoon the previous day. After the exercises concluded, President Yoon repeatedly emphasized, "True peace is not a fake peace that depends on the enemy's goodwill, but protecting national security with our own strength." North Korea immediately issued a 'warning statement' under the name of the Ministry of Defense spokesperson, signaling the provocation.

Some speculate that North Korea judged the relaunch of its reconnaissance satellite to be practically difficult and used the firepower annihilation exercises as an opportunity to resume missile provocations. Moon Sung-mook, head of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, assessed, "From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it seems that the best-case scenario of successfully launching the satellite and consecutively holding plenary meetings has encountered setbacks," suggesting that the leadership's intentions are complex.

Given that North Korea unusually announced a plenary meeting of the party, there is also a view that the provocation was aimed at internal cohesion. This year marks the third year of North Korea's 'Five-Year Economic Development Plan,' and there is significant pressure regarding its achievements. Previously, North Korea announced it would hold a plenary meeting in the 'early part of this month,' but as of the 15th, the last day of the early part, it has yet to convene the meeting.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies also left open the possibility of a message directed at China. Ahead of U.S. Secretary of State Blinken's visit to China, North Korea found missile launches unavoidable. Professor Yang advised, "Creative strategies are required to avoid being sidelined during the phase transition." This is interpreted as a call for South Korea to prepare response strategies in case the U.S.-China conflict shifts to a dialogue phase and North Korea attempts to capitalize on it.

Meanwhile, the U.S. strategic nuclear-powered submarine USS Michigan (SSGN-727) entered the Busan Naval Base on the morning of the 16th. The SSGN is a nuclear-powered guided missile submarine capable of launching submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs), and its deployment to the Korean Peninsula is the first in over six years since October 2017. Deploying the SSGN just one day after North Korea's missile provocation is interpreted as a demonstration of the U.S. intention to increase the frequency of exposure of strategic assets and strengthen deterrence against North Korea.

Earlier, the South Korea-U.S. leaders included in the Washington Declaration adopted in April a commitment to enhance the 'Regular Visibility' of U.S. strategic assets. This implies a plan to deploy strategic assets more frequently to the Korean Peninsula and to disclose them more actively.

Additionally, it has been confirmed that four B-52 strategic bombers, representative of U.S. strategic assets, have been redeployed to Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, Pacific. The U.S. Pacific Air Forces announced that "four B-52s and about 200 personnel arrived in Guam on the 14th, two days ago, for the Bomber Task Force (BTF) mission." This is two and a half months after the bombers were deployed to Guam at the end of March, conducted joint exercises with the South Korean Air Force, and returned to the U.S. mainland.

The B-52 can fly over 12,000 km with just one refueling at an altitude of 15 km. The U.S. military explains that it can carry nuclear bombs, conventional weapons, and precision-guided munitions, enabling operations anywhere in the world. Unlike past bomber deployments, which were disclosed up to ten days later, the immediate announcement of the Guam deployment is seen as a move to enhance extended deterrence by increasing 'regular visibility.'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.