Fear of Overhaul in General Election... Hidden Variable is the '55% Hurdle'

21st General Election Ruling Party Vote Share Over 55% Regions Draw Attention
Gyeonggi and Incheon at Zero... Only 3 Areas in Seoul Including Gangnam and Seocho
People Power Party's 'Certain Win' Areas Concentrated in Yeongnam

"In the general election, success or failure is determined by how much of the centrist vote is captured by the conservative and progressive sides... It is absolutely unacceptable to nominate a large number of former prosecutors."

The remarks conveyed by Attorney Shin Pyeong, who was called President Yoon Seok-yeol's mentor, in an interview with YTN Radio's 'News King Park Ji-hoon' on the 3rd symbolically reflect the internal currents within the ruling party. Inside and outside the People Power Party, there are rumors of a possible reshuffle related to the 22nd general election scheduled for April 10 next year.

Rather than a broad reshuffle of all constituencies, the content suggests that the so-called 'prime constituencies' will see significant changes in nominations. Incumbent lawmakers will be replaced mainly in constituencies where winning under the People Power Party banner is highly likely, and in those areas, many former prosecutors close to President Yoon are expected to be nominated.

Although the core of the ruling party, including the presidential office, draws a line against the so-called prosecutor nomination theory, it is noteworthy that Attorney Shin, who was called the president's mentor, also mentioned this issue. Denying it by saying "such a thing will not happen" does not eliminate the fear among incumbent ruling party lawmakers.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Prosecutor Candidacy Rumors for General Election... Fierce Competition Expected in Favorable Districts

Among former prosecutors, only a few, including Minister of Justice Han Dong-hoon, are expected to have a chance of winning if they run in the general election. There is also an assessment that Minister Han should run in relatively politically favorable districts rather than so-called political battlegrounds to reduce the risk of losing. This analysis considers that the general election is a grueling competition often compared to a war.

Minister Han has built more recognition than incumbent lawmakers, but most prosecutor candidates expected to run have minimal name recognition. Compared to politicians who have cultivated their constituencies over several years, this is a decisive weakness. For those with low recognition and weaker local organizational strength to win, district selection is crucial.

The case of Representative Tae Young-ho from Seoul Gangnam-gu Gap, which has recently been the focus of controversy, is widely seen as a conflict sparked by nomination issues. Representative Tae addressed rumors about nomination negotiations with Lee Jin-bok, the presidential office's senior secretary for political affairs, as follows.

Tae Young-ho, Supreme Council Member of the People Power Party, is answering questions from reporters after an emergency press conference on current issues at the National Assembly Communication Office on the 3rd. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

"The essence of this incident is that during a meeting attended by the entire staff, I reassured the staff worried about the nomination despite my election as a Supreme Council member at the party convention, encouraging them to focus on activities as a Supreme Council member dedicated to the success of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. Someone at the meeting secretly recorded and maliciously leaked my remarks."

Representative Tae denied the nomination negotiation rumors with Senior Secretary Lee Jin-bok, saying his intentions were distorted. However, his message shows that there are doubts about his nomination as a Supreme Council member of the ruling party. Why has Gangnam-gu Gap become a subject of controversy? In the 21st general election in 2020, Representative Tae (then candidate named Tae Gumin) received 58.4% of the vote, a high percentage that did not raise concerns about his election.

In fact, the vote share Tae received ranks among the top for People Power Party (then United Future Party) candidates in Seoul. Considering that the election was held amid the Democratic Party's stronghold, a vote share exceeding 55% was a commendable result. This also indicates that Gangnam-gu Gap is a district favorable to the People Power Party.

While Representative Tae's personal political skills likely influenced the vote, the strong People Power Party support in the district was the background for achieving over 55% of the vote share.

A 50% vote share for a general election candidate means election victory. However, support in the low 50% range in opinion polls is a precarious figure that can flip depending on political circumstances. At least 55% support is needed to reduce the burden of losing. This applies to all 253 constituencies nationwide. Many closely contested districts see ruling and opposition candidates fiercely competing for 45-50% vote shares.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Districts with Over 55% Vote Share in Last General Election Concentrated in Yeongnam Region

Running in districts where election victory is not assured (for example, where a vote share around 45% is expected) is a political risk. Political newcomers aiming to win a seat in the 22nd general election naturally hope to run in their party's stronghold districts (for example, where they can achieve over 55% vote share). The problem is that such districts are limited.

Looking at the People Power Party, only three districts in the metropolitan area exceeded 55% vote share in the 21st general election in 2020. These are Gangnam-gu Gap represented by Representative Tae, Gangnam-gu Byeong represented by Representative Yoo Kyung-jun, and Seocho-gu Gap where then Representative Yoon Hee-sook was elected.

Other areas in Seoul did not reach 55% vote share. In Incheon, no candidate exceeded 55%. In Gyeonggi Province, it was virtually zero as well. The highest vote share was 54.97% by candidate Kim Seon-gyo who ran in the Gyeonggi Yeoju-Yangpyeong district.

No candidate in Gangwon Province or Jeju Island recorded over 55% vote share. In the Chungcheong region including Daejeon, Chungnam, Sejong, and Chungbuk, only candidate Park Deok-heum in Boeun-Okcheon-Yeongdong, Chungbuk, surpassed the 55% threshold with 56.9% vote share. No candidate in Honam exceeded 55% either.

In Ulsan, only Representative Kim Ki-hyun, who ran in Nam-gu Eul, surpassed the 55% barrier with 58.5% vote share.

Other Yeongnam areas such as Daegu, Gyeongbuk, Busan, and Gyeongnam had relatively many districts exceeding 55% vote share. In Busan, there are five such districts including Haewundae Gap represented by Representative Ha Tae-kyung and Saha-gu Eul represented by Representative Jo Kyung-tae. Daegu has ten districts including Suseong-gu Gap represented by Representative Joo Ho-young. Gyeongbuk has eleven districts including Pohang Buk-gu represented by Representative Kim Jung-jae. Gyeongnam has eight districts including Uiryeong-Haman-Changnyeong represented by Representative Jo Hae-jin.

Yeongnam has relatively many districts where 'People Power Party nomination = election victory' can be expected, but the story changes when considering the metropolitan area, Honam, Chungcheong, Gangwon, and Jeju. Although there are many forecasts that former prosecutors who have emerged as key figures in the Yoon Seok-yeol administration will run in next year's general election, it is difficult to be confident of victory if they run in areas other than Yeongnam, such as the metropolitan area.

In Seoul, except for some parts of Gangnam-gu and Seocho-gu, most districts are not easy. Looking back at the last general election results in Gyeonggi Province, no district was easy either. In Bundang-gu Gap, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi Province, a stronghold of the People Power Party, candidate Kim Eun-hye won with 50.1% vote share. She narrowly defeated Democratic Party candidate Kim Byung-kwan by less than 1%.

Although there are rampant rumors in political circles about nominating a large number of former prosecutors, if implemented, district selection will be a matter of concern. The more difficult the path to victory, the more fiercely competitive the nomination battle will be in relatively easier districts such as Gangnam and Seocho.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.