"'Mudangcheung = Third Zone New Party' is a Misconception? ... 'Politically Indifferent Group'"

Rapid Increase in Undecided Voters
Rising Expectations for New Third-Party Formation
Where Are the Votes of 54% of 20s Going?

After last year's presidential and local elections, the approval ratings of the two major parties declined, while the proportion of the 'non-affiliated' voters without party support nearly doubled. This is understood to be due to a significant increase in voters turning their backs on established politics.

As attention focuses on the emerging 'third zone new parties' as new political forces, the key question in the political sphere has become how much of the non-affiliated voters they can absorb. Theoretically, if they can capture up to 30% of the non-affiliated voters, they could secure enough seats to threaten the existing two major parties in next year's general election. However, there is a diagnosis that the characteristics of the non-affiliated voters must be analyzed first.

Ruling Party 32% vs Opposition 32% vs Non-affiliated 31%

Recently, the proportion of non-affiliated voters has been soaring in various opinion polls. According to the April 3rd week opinion poll released by Gallup Korea on the 21st (with a sampling error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level; for details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website), the proportion of non-affiliated voters was 31%.

During the same period, the party approval ratings for the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea were both 32%, only 1 percentage point different from the non-affiliated voters. Compared to three months ago (the 3rd week of January), the non-affiliated voters increased by 5 percentage points from 25%.

The increase or decrease in non-affiliated voters appears to correlate with election periods.

Looking at the opinion polls conducted around the 2022 presidential election (March 9) in the 3rd weeks of January and April 2022, the non-affiliated voters were in the teens at 19% and 16%, respectively. However, during the same period in 2021 (3rd weeks of January and April), when there were no nationwide elections (excluding by-elections), the non-affiliated voters were 30% and 27%, respectively, similar to the current level. This implies that the current non-affiliated voter rate (31%) could consolidate somewhere and decrease just before next year's general election.

The success of forming a new party depends on how many of these non-affiliated voters can be attracted. Considering that the fixed support base for the ruling and opposition parties is around 30%, the ratio of '32% (People Power Party) - 32% (Democratic Party) - 31% (non-affiliated)' itself forms one piece of the puzzle for the emergence of a 'third zone party.'

The assumption that 'non-affiliated voters = new party supporters' is a 'misconception'

However, the assumption that non-affiliated voters will automatically become supporters of the newly emerging third political force is premature.

This year, the National Assembly seemed to accelerate political reform by holding a plenary committee for the first time in 20 years to overcome the extremes of two-party politics. However, it has reverted to a 'political conflict assembly' trapped by the Yoon core group (Yoon Seok-yeol's key associates) and the shielding of Lee Jae-myung. The People Power Party faced setbacks due to consecutive controversies involving its Supreme Council members and the 'Jeon Gwang-hoon risk,' while the Democratic Party has been embarrassed by not only Lee Jae-myung's judicial risks but also allegations that members of Song Young-gil's party leader candidate camp distributed cash envelopes during the 2021 party convention. Meanwhile, the approval ratings of both major parties are rapidly declining.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In a regular party support survey conducted by Realmeter commissioned by Media Tribune, the People Power Party's support fell from 37.0% in the 4th week of March (20-24) to 34.5% in the 3rd week of April (17-21), a drop of 2.5 percentage points. During the same period, the Democratic Party's support decreased from 46.4% to 45.7%, a 0.7 percentage point decline. Neither party benefited from a 'spillover effect'; instead, both declined simultaneously.

On the other hand, the non-affiliated voters increased by 2.9 percentage points from 11.3% to 14.2%, indicating they did not support either major party (sampling error ±2.0% at 95% confidence level). Even if the public feels disillusioned with two-party politics, the idea that 'non-affiliated voters = new party supporters' may be a misconception. This is because they may be a group uninterested in politics itself rather than just political parties.

Half of people in their 20s are 'non-affiliated'... but 20% say "I will not vote"

Analyzing Gallup Korea's opinion polls, the increase in non-affiliated voters is marked by political indifference among those aged 18-29. In the 3rd week of April, the non-affiliated voters were 31%, with 54% of people in their 20s responding 'no party support/unknown,' the highest proportion. Among those in their 30s, 37% were non-affiliated, about one in three. This pattern was similar in the 3rd week of January 2021 when the non-affiliated voters were 30%. At that time, 56% of people in their 20s and 32% of those in their 30s were non-affiliated.

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok targeted people in their 20s during last year's presidential election based on this trend. When the overall non-affiliated voters decreased from 30% to 14%, the non-affiliated voters in their 20s, who hovered around the mid-50% range, dropped to 31% just before the presidential election (1st week of March 2022), and those in their 30s halved from 32% to 14%. Although the focus was limited to 'Lee Dae-nam' (men in their 20s), this was regarded as the 'Lee Jun-seok effect,' concretizing swing voters, which was significant.

In next year's general election, success or failure is expected to hinge on who and how many can absorb the non-affiliated voters in their 20s. The problem lies in the assumption that the characteristics of the non-affiliated voters in 2024 may differ from those in the past.

"Today's non-affiliated voters are politically indifferent and inactive"

Um Kyung-young, head of the Era Spirit Institute, pointed out, "Currently, depoliticization among non-affiliated voters has progressed significantly, with about 27-28% in large numbers, accounting for one-third of voters, and half of them are in their 20s and 30s." He explained, "Their characteristics are de-ideologization, de-factionalization, and depoliticization," adding, "Depoliticization means abstaining from voting."

According to the National Election Commission, the voter turnout among the 20s and 30s age groups was in the 30% range during last year's '8th simultaneous local elections.' The highest turnout was among those in their 70s at 75.3%, followed by those in their 60s (70.5%), 50s (55.2%), 80 and older (51.2%), and 40s (44.7%). The 30s had a turnout of 37.8%, and the 20s had 36.3%. This shows a tendency for lower voter participation as age decreases.

The voter turnout for 18- and 19-year-olds, who will be in their 20s in next year's general election, was even lower. The turnout for 18-year-old voters was 36.1%, and for 19-year-olds, 35.7%, the lowest among all age groups.

Additionally, it is notable that the 40s and 50s age groups, previously classified as politically highly engaged, are also changing.

In the past, when the non-affiliated voter rate was high, the increase was prominent among the 20s and 30s. However, recently, the proportion of non-affiliated voters in their 40s and 50s has risen to the mid-to-high 20% range. In the 3rd week of January 2021, when the non-affiliated voter rate was 30%, the rates for the 40s and 50s were 19% and 18%, respectively, in the teens. But in the 3rd week of April this year, when the non-affiliated voter rate increased to 31%, these rates rose to 26% and 27%, respectively.

Um said, "In the past, non-affiliated voters did not support existing parties but participated critically in politics, meaning they voted. However, today's non-affiliated voters are politically indifferent and inactive," predicting, "Even if a third party emerges, its chances of success may decrease." He emphasized, "For a new party to succeed, it must sweep the support of non-affiliated voters, but since the majority of non-affiliated voters are in their 20s and 30s who are de-ideologized, depoliticized, and abstain from voting, it is questionable whether they will become a strong force for a new party," adding, "The trend of declining voter turnout is clear."

If this characteristic of non-affiliated voters is not considered and the focus is solely on the figure of '30%' for non-affiliated voters, even if a new political force emerges in next year's general election, it cannot be guaranteed that they will secure a meaningful number of seats. This is why attention must be paid one year ahead of the general election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.