[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Nuclear Warhead Stockpile Quantity

Foreign Agencies Estimate North Korea Has Over 20 Nuclear Warheads
Twice the Number Estimated by Our Military

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimated that North Korea possesses more than 30 nuclear warheads, approximately twice the number estimated by our military.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 5th, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported that FAS updated its "Status of World Nuclear Forces" last month, raising its estimate of North Korea's nuclear warheads from "20?30" to "more than 30."

Hans Kristensen, head of the FAS Nuclear Information Project, said in an interview with RFA, "Although the estimate is not certain, we believe North Korea has assembled about 30 warheads and can produce additional fissile material."

According to the index published by FAS, Russia has the largest number of nuclear warheads at 5,889, followed by the United States with 5,244, China with 410, France with 290, the United Kingdom with 225, Pakistan with 170, India with 164, and Israel with 90.

Overseas expert organizations also estimate that North Korea possesses more than 20 nuclear warheads.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) released a report last September estimating that North Korea likely has 20?30 assembled nuclear warheads. At that time, BAS senior researcher Matt Korda and Nuclear Information Project head Hans Kristensen estimated that North Korea's nuclear weapons are "mainly warheads assembled to be mounted on medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM)."

The Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) analyzed in June last year that North Korea already possesses 20 nuclear warheads and has fissile material (uranium-235 or plutonium-239) sufficient to manufacture 45?55 warheads.

Japan's Nagasaki University Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA) estimated in its "2022 World Nuclear Material Data" report that North Korea had 40 nuclear warheads as of June 2022. Additionally, the U.S. National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) announced in November 2020 an estimate that North Korea possesses 15?60 nuclear warheads.

On the other hand, the estimate by our military is smaller. The "2022 Defense White Paper" stated that North Korea has produced nuclear material since the 1980s through operations at nuclear facilities such as Yongbyon, and continues to possess about 70 kg of plutonium through reprocessing and a significant amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU) through uranium enrichment programs. Considering that manufacturing one nuclear weapon (warhead) with plutonium requires 4?8 kg depending on components and technology, North Korea possesses enough plutonium to manufacture 9?18 nuclear weapons.

North Korea's number of nuclear warheads is expected to increase in the future. At the Workers' Party Central Committee plenary meeting in December last year, Chairman Kim Jong-un declared that "the number of nuclear warheads will increase exponentially."

North Korea released photos on New Year's Day showing Chairman Kim Jong-un inspecting a weapons depot where more than 10 warheads of the intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) "Hwasong-12" were separated. Experts analyzed this as an attempt to support Kim’s statement about exponentially increasing nuclear warheads. Some observers also suggest that by deliberately exposing this scene, North Korea subtly flaunted its "nuclear threat."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.