[Insight & Opinion] To Understand Society... Observe Persistently and Engage in Dialogue

Recently, I have been reading posts by North Korea experts on Twitter. It is quite surprising how many Westerners claim to be experts on North Korea. How did they become experts? This question applies not only to Westerners who call themselves North Korea experts but also to anyone who claims to analyze their own or foreign countries 'professionally.' How well do they really know the countries they study? Through what channels do they gather their information? Finding answers to these questions might help us assess the reliability of the information they provide.

The book Democracy in America, published in 1835 and 1840 respectively, was written by the French aristocrat Alexis de Tocqueville, who traveled for about two years in the early 1830s and conducted a microscopic analysis of American society. In this book, he argued that the driving force of American democracy lies in the balance between individual freedom and the desire for communal prosperity. Although Tocqueville’s journey took place nearly 200 years ago, the summer of 2020 saw the largest participation in the "Black Lives Matter" protests in American history, which seems to reflect the democratic spirit Tocqueville observed. By today’s standards, Tocqueville could be considered an expert on America.

How reliable are the statements of North Korea experts encountered on Twitter? Unfortunately, their limitations are clear. Traveling to North Korea is difficult, and even if one goes there, free conversations with locals are impossible. This means the information they can obtain is limited. In fact, many North Korea experts predicted in the 1990s, observing the reunification of Germany and the collapse of the Soviet Union, that North Korea would soon collapse as well. The outcome was different. Their analyses stemmed from a lack of understanding of North Korea and ended up revealing their own expectations. Not much has changed since then.

It is not only these experts who are unreliable. Are American experts, who can travel anywhere and talk to anyone, providing accurate analyses? During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the analyses from major media outlets with powerful influence and extensive reporting networks were not accurate. At that time, a freelance journalist traveled through the American Midwest and shared his observations on Twitter. Contrary to the predictions of major media outlets, he forecasted Trump’s victory. Whenever he posted such predictions, many were skeptical, but watching the election results, I recall reevaluating his analysis. Where does this difference come from?

The inadequate analyses of North Korea experts can be somewhat understood. However, the inaccuracies of major American media outlets are harder to comprehend. It is often blamed on budget issues, but we all know it is not simply a matter of funding. Journalists working for major American media outlets have become white-collar professionals. Due to their professional nature, they are accustomed to viewing society objectively but are not used to immersing themselves directly in the world or engaging in deep conversations with people. They may even find it unfamiliar to step out of their own world and deeply enter another.

Is this phenomenon unique to America? What about South Korea? Let us take a closer look at those who claim to be experts on America in South Korea. Are their analyses accurate? How persistently do they observe and listen to locals to analyze America precisely? Is this only applicable to a distant country like America? How many people in South Korea are actively exploring every corner of the country to understand today’s Korea properly? Where and how can we find analyses from experts worth listening to? Without observation and dialogue, how much trust should we place in their analyses?

Robert Fauzer, Former Professor at Seoul National University

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.