Oscar Outcome Uncertain... Most Nominations Could Be a Curse

'Everything Everywhere...' Dominates Critics' Awards
Many Most-Nominated Films Miss Best Picture
Fierce Competition Between Lead Actress Winners Yang Ziqiong and Blanchett

The 95th Academy Awards (Oscars) ceremony in the United States is just one day away. It will be held on the 12th (local time) at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles (LA), USA.

Local major media outlets point to "Everything Everywhere All at Once" (Everything), directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, as the likely winner. The film tells the story of a Chinese immigrant woman who runs a laundromat and saves the world, woven into a multiverse narrative. It received the most nominations, with ten categories including Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, two Best Supporting Actress nominations, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, and Best Original Song. Among these, the consensus is that it is close to winning Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Director.

The couple who starred together, Liang Ziqiong (Liang Ziqiong) and Ke Hoi Kwan, won Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical and Best Supporting Actor respectively at the Golden Globe Awards in January. They also won the same awards at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards held last month. The film also won the top award given to the entire cast, the "Outstanding Performance by a Cast," increasing its chances of winning an Oscar. SAG members make up the largest portion of the voting body that decides the Oscar winners.

"Everything" also won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award for Best Director, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Picture, and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Award for Original Screenplay. All films that have swept the four major Hollywood guild awards (Directors, Producers, Actors, Writers) have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture. These include "Argo," "No Country for Old Men," "Slumdog Millionaire," and "American Beauty."

Ironically, the biggest variable is the film with the most nominations. Recently, films with the most nominations have often missed out on Best Picture. Last year's "The Power of the Dog" is a prime example. It was nominated in twelve categories including Best Picture, Best Director, and major acting awards, but only won Best Director (Jane Campion). In 2019, Alfonso Cuar?n's "Roma" was nominated in ten categories but lost Best Picture to "Green Book." In the past decade, only two films with the most nominations have won Best Picture: Alejandro Gonz?lez I??rritu's "Birdman" in 2015 and Guillermo del Toro's "The Shape of Water" in 2018.

U.S. entertainment media Deadline reported, "Voters tend to favor other films over those with many nominations," adding, "Last month, the British Academy Award for Best Picture went to 'All Quiet on the Western Front,' not 'Everything,' and some older members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) are not particularly attracted to 'Everything.'" They also expressed concern that "the nightmare of 'Brokeback Mountain' could be repeated."

Directed by Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain" was nominated in a record eight categories in 2006. However, amid controversies including homophobia, it missed out on Best Picture and major acting awards. The former went to Paul Haggis's "Crash." It is still frequently cited as a major mistake in Oscar history. Films that could block "Everything's" smooth sailing include Edward Berger's "All Quiet on the Western Front" and Martin McDonagh's "The Banshees of Inisherin," each nominated in nine categories.

The Best Director race is expected to be a contest between Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, co-directors of "Everything," and Steven Spielberg for "The Fabelmans." Variety and Deadline predict the former, while Forbes anticipates a win for the latter. This is Spielberg's ninth nomination for Best Director. "The Fabelmans" has already won the Golden Globe for Best Picture and Best Director this year, as well as the Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.

Leading contenders for Best Actress include Liang Ziqiong from "Everything" and Cate Blanchett from "T?r." Liang Ziqiong is an actress who gained global recognition through Hong Kong action films in the 1980s and 1990s. She is the first Asian to be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress. Blanchett has already won Oscars for Best Actress ("Blue Jasmine") and Best Supporting Actress ("The Aviator"). In "T?r," she portrayed Lydia T?r, the first female principal conductor of the Berlin Philharmonic, impressing audiences with her conducting, German language skills, and piano performances. Variety and Vanity Fair predict Liang Ziqiong will win, while Forbes and Deadline favor Blanchett.

Best Actor contenders include Brendan Fraser for "The Whale," Austin Butler for "Elvis," and Colin Farrell for "The Banshees of Inisherin." Fraser, who has suffered from surgery, sexual assault trauma, and divorce, made a successful comeback portraying the 272 kg character Charlie. Butler excellently portrayed the life of rock and roll legend Elvis Presley, and Farrell realistically depicted a man struggling to restore his friendship in a remote island village. Variety and Deadline predict Butler, Vanity Fair favors Fraser, and Forbes expects Farrell to perform well.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.