[Politics That Day] Lee Jae-myung - Lee Nak-yeon, Unexpected Common Denominator

Overwhelming 60-70% Vote Share... Party Members' Unanimous Support Experienced
Political Leader Breaking Democratic Party Convention Records
Pro-Myeong vs. Anti-Myeong Conflict Dynamics, Both Sides' Self-Defeating Moves

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to noteworthy scenes, events, and figures.

An interesting point when revisiting political history is that the public's memory and the actual outcomes often differ significantly. Former President Moon Jae-in ran for the party leadership election on February 9, 2015. At that time, the party he belonged to was not the Democratic Party of Korea but the New Politics Alliance for Democracy.

Although the parties share the same roots, Moon Jae-in challenged the New Politics Alliance for Democracy's leadership election. His opponent at the time was Park Jie-won, former Director of the National Intelligence Service. Although Park later served as the NIS Director under the Moon administration, back in 2015, the rivalry between Moon Jae-in and Park Jie-won was intense.

Park Jie-won, a politician so focused on criticizing Moon Jae-in that he was nicknamed ‘Moon Morning,’ concentrated on ‘attacking Moon Jae-in’ every day. What was the result of that leadership election? Considering that Moon Jae-in eventually became president, one might assume he won by a landslide, but the actual result was very close. The victory margin was ‘45.30% vs. 41.78%.’

Former President Moon Jae-in and former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won, who competed for the position of party leader of the New Politics Alliance for Democracy in 2015.

Which candidate was favored in the surveys of party members with voting rights and general party members? The answer was Park Jie-won. In the ARS survey of party members with voting rights, Moon Jae-in received 39.98%, while Park Jie-won got 45.76%. In the general party member opinion poll, Park Jie-won led with 44.31% over Moon Jae-in's 43.29%, showing Park's advantage among politicians.

The reason former President Moon Jae-in could become party leader was due to overwhelming support in the general public opinion polls. It was said that the party base chose Park Jie-won, while the public chose Moon Jae-in.

Considering Moon Jae-in's vote share as party leader, it is possible to imagine how difficult it is to achieve a 60-70% vote share in the Democratic Party leadership election. An interesting point is that there have been figures who recorded a 60-70% vote share in the Democratic Party leadership elections.

These were two events that occurred in the 2020s. The politicians who received truly overwhelming vote shares were Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Jae-myung.

Lee Nak-yeon, former candidate in the Democratic Party presidential primary, is attending the camp closing ceremony held at Daesan Building in Yeouido, Seoul on December 14, 2020, and is touring the event venue. Photo by Lee Nak-yeon Camp

Politician Lee Nak-yeon ran in the Democratic Party leadership election on August 29, 2020, and secured 60.77% of the vote. His competitors included former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and Representative Park Joo-min, among others, but Lee Nak-yeon won decisively across delegates, party members with voting rights, public opinion polls, and party member polls.

The composition of Lee Nak-yeon's leadership team at the time is also interesting. Kim Jong-min, Representative Yeom Tae-young, former Mayor of Suwon, and Representative Shin Dong-geun, all considered non-Lee Jae-myung faction members, were elected as Supreme Council members. Yang Hyang-ja, who has since left the Democratic Party, was also elected as a Supreme Council member. Another Supreme Council member was Representative Roh Woong-rae.

This was the makeup of the Democratic Party leadership just three years ago. The party base chose politician Lee Nak-yeon as leader and politician Kim Jong-min as the top Supreme Council member. Did the Democratic Party base continue to show unlimited affection for Lee Nak-yeon and Kim Jong-min?

Just as feelings about reason change, thoughts about politicians inevitably change as well. As of 2023, Lee Nak-yeon and Kim Jong-min are subjects of criticism among the mainstream supporters of the Democratic Party. They are symbolic figures of the non-Lee Jae-myung faction and are identified as key players in the parliamentary arrest motion incident against Lee Jae-myung.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is seated at the members' meeting held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on February 21. The Democratic Party will discuss the issue of processing the arrest consent motion for Lee following the prosecution's request for an arrest warrant at this members' meeting. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The politician who inherited the political stature of Lee Nak-yeon, who received overwhelming support from Democratic Party members just three years ago, is politician Lee Jae-myung. Lee Jae-myung broke the Democratic Party leadership election record. On August 28, 2022, at the Democratic Party convention, he became party leader with an overwhelming 77.77% vote share.

At that time, the convention was held amid controversies over so-called fandom politics, the presidential election defeat, and local election losses, but the Democratic Party poured overwhelming support into politician Lee Jae-myung.

The top Supreme Council member elected was Representative Jung Cheong-rae, joined by Representatives Ko Min-jung, Park Chan-dae, Seo Young-kyo, and Jang Kyung-tae. Except for Ko Min-jung, the convention results clearly reflected the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction.

It seemed that under Lee Jae-myung's leadership, the party would contest the 22nd general election in April 2024.

However, the submission of the arrest motion by the prosecution and the parliamentary voting process revealed a huge rift within the Democratic Party. Contrary to the party leadership's expectations, more than 30 defecting votes emerged en masse. Although the party's internal strife appears quiet on the surface, the reality is heading toward a difficult-to-manage situation.

One was a figure who once secured a leading position as a presidential candidate but lost in the primary, and the other was a candidate who was selected but lost narrowly by less than 1%. For both, the last presidential election remains a memory of regret.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and former leader Lee Nak-yeon are meeting at a tea house in Jongno-gu, Seoul, on the afternoon of October 24, 2021. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

An interesting point is that although the two appear to be political rivals, they are in fact political fate partners. This is regardless of their own will. If they cannot join hands, their own power weakens.

Both share the common denominator of having received overwhelming support in the history of Democratic Party leadership elections.

Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon, both politicians, have the remaining goal in their political careers of becoming the new occupant of the presidential office. Considering the pace of change in Korean politics, many events will unfold before the presidential election four years from now.

One might think that weakening the other's power would secure an advantageous position in the presidential race, but the presidential equation is not that simple. Even if one wins the party primary and becomes the presidential candidate, the general election could become difficult. The deeper the emotional divide between the pro-Lee Jae-myung and anti-Lee Jae-myung factions grows, the more distant their presidential dreams become.

Considering the last presidential election, where the candidate's fate was decided within a 1% vote margin, expanding the ‘internal enemy’ within the party could ultimately become a boomerang that tightens its own constraints.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.