Brexit New Agreement... Deepening Shadows of the New Cold War

The new Brexit agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU) is expected to strengthen Western cohesion. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine passes its first year, the division between blocs deepens and geopolitical risks escalate, marking a new Cold War era that is anticipated to accelerate under the new economic order established by the Brexit agreement.

The UK Economist on the 27th (local time) evaluated the resolution of the contentious Northern Ireland agreement between the UK and the EU during the 2020 Brexit as a noteworthy new beginning internationally. The Economist analyzed, "The path to improving relations between the UK and the EU has opened, and there are broader geopolitical reasons to welcome the 'Windsor Framework'." This is because, as the second year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine unfolds, the formation of US-EU versus China-Russia blocs has become overt, making security and diplomatic cooperation more urgent than ever.

The new agreement is also seen as resolving inherent security risks between the UK and the US related to the Northern Ireland issue. Joe Biden, the Irish-American President of the United States, publicly expressed concerns that the Belfast Agreement could collapse due to the Northern Ireland issue. The US government and Congress have pressured the UK to reach a reasonable resolution on Northern Ireland by leveraging the free trade agreement (FTA) that the US and UK are set to newly conclude following Brexit. Upon the announcement of the UK-EU agreement, President Biden called it a "significant progress." He stated, "Northern Ireland can achieve remarkable results when cooperating for the common good," and added, "I expect the people and businesses of Northern Ireland to fully capitalize on the economic opportunities brought by stability."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The Windsor Framework agreed upon by the UK and the EU on this day can be summarized as a plan to remove barriers between the UK and the island of Ireland. Both parties agreed to minimize quarantine and customs procedures by distinguishing the final destination of goods entering Northern Ireland from the mainland as either Northern Ireland or the EU. The UK will be able to exercise sovereignty by setting value-added tax and subsidies applicable to Northern Ireland.

The Northern Ireland Assembly will have the power to intervene when EU regulations are applied, thereby granting the UK government authority to engage in related matters. The EU will maintain regulatory authority by placing final arbitration rights regarding Northern Ireland agreements with the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

This agreement is also seen as resolving the chronic conflicts between major EU countries and the UK. Since the UK decided on Brexit in 2016 and engaged in prolonged separation negotiations, it has continuously clashed with Germany and France, the leading countries of the EU. In particular, tensions between the UK and the EU reached a dangerous level, with discussions of a trade war emerging, as the UK even showed signs of unilaterally breaking the Brexit agreement related to Northern Ireland.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.