Minju, Approval Ratings Reversed After 8 Months... The 'Lee Jae-myung Shield' Dilemma

Democratic Party Support at 39.9%, Trailing People Power Party
First Time Outside Margin of Error Since June Last Year
Opposition to Bill Prevails Within Democratic Party

[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Park Joon-yi] The support rate for the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has fallen behind the People Power Party (PPP) beyond the margin of error for the first time since the local elections. The situation surrounding the arrest warrant request for DPK leader Lee Jae-myung and the parliamentary vote on the arrest consent bill appear to have negatively impacted the party's approval ratings.

According to a regular poll conducted by Realmeter on the 20th (commissioned by Media Tribune, conducted from the 13th to the 17th via ARS automated response method targeting 2,504 adults aged 18 and over nationwide), the PPP's support rate rose by 2.5 percentage points from the previous week to 45.0%. The DPK's party support rate dropped by 2.9 percentage points to 39.9%. Realmeter explained, "The gap between the PPP and the DPK is 5.1 percentage points, marking the first time in about eight months (34 weeks) since the fourth week of June last year (PPP 44.8%, DPK 39.5%) that the PPP has led beyond the margin of error." Until now, the DPK and PPP had been neck and neck within the margin of error, but this is the first time the DPK has fallen behind outside that range.

The PPP showed an upward trend in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong (+10.0 percentage points), Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (+7.2 percentage points), women (+6.2 percentage points), and people in their 30s (+8.1 percentage points). Conversely, the DPK experienced declines in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong (-10.0 percentage points), Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (-5.7 percentage points), women (-6.0 percentage points), people in their 40s (-5.8 percentage points), and people in their 30s (-5.1 percentage points).

The DPK's decline is interpreted as being influenced by the prosecution's pre-arrest warrant request for DPK leader Lee Jae-myung and the onset of the arrest consent bill situation. A notable point is the voter sentiment in the Chungcheong region and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (PK). For the DPK, which is strong in Honam, and the PPP, which is strong in Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), the victory in the general election will be decided by the metropolitan area along with the Chungcheong region and PK voter sentiment. In this context, the shift of voter sentiment in Chungcheong and PK from the DPK to the PPP is a noteworthy phenomenon. The direction of voter sentiment among women and voters in their 40s, where the DPK had shown strength, is also a point of interest.

Within the DPK, even if the arrest consent bill for Lee passes to the National Assembly, the prevailing mood is for its rejection. The DPK plans to hold a party meeting on the afternoon of the 21st at the National Assembly to discuss responses to the arrest consent bill for Lee and other measures. Discussions on adopting a party stance regarding the vote on the arrest consent bill are expected.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Lee Sang-min, a DPK lawmaker who argued that Lee Jae-myung should waive his parliamentary immunity and undergo a warrant review, pointed out the unfairness of the warrant request on SBS Kim Tae-hyun's Political Show on the same day, explaining that the mood within the party strongly favors rejection. The lawmaker said, "There must be criminal charges or grounds for detention to justify personal custody regarding Lee's warrant, but I think that is insufficient," adding, "I believe the bill will likely be rejected in the vote." Suggesting the method of undergoing a warrant review, the lawmaker said, "Considering the investigation so far, if Lee undergoes the warrant review, it is likely to be dismissed," but also noted, "(The current session) is ongoing." While parliamentary immunity cannot be waived outside of a session, the fact that the plenary session will be held on the 27th following the report of the arrest consent bill on the 24th effectively allows for the vote on the bill.

However, since voices within the party still call for waiving parliamentary immunity and undergoing a warrant review, there is a possibility that the party's mood may change due to this poll result. Former DPK emergency committee member Park Ji-hyun said on BBS Radio's Jeon Young-shin's Morning Journal on the same day, "If the National Assembly rejects the arrest consent bill, the DPK will be left with only a 'bulletproof' stance, and no matter how much they talk about legislation or livelihood issues, their ability to communicate will inevitably decline, meaning the general election will be over," adding, "The best path Lee can choose is to make a decisive sacrifice by waiving parliamentary immunity."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.