North Korea Sets the Mood for Gwangmyeongseongjeol... Heightened Alert for Possible Resumption of Provocations

Kwangmyongsong Day (Kim Jong Il's Birthday) Focuses on 'Internal Unity'
North Korea's Past Provocations Including Nuclear Tests Noted
"Missile Launch Possible Under Pretext of ROK-US Joint Exercises"

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] There are observations that North Korea may resume military provocations around the birthday of Kim Jong-il, the National Defense Commission Chairman, on the 16th, known as 'Gwangmyeongseongjeol.' Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission, conducted his first nuclear test since taking power ahead of Gwangmyeongseongjeol in February 2013, and with a large-scale South Korea-U.S. joint exercise scheduled for the upcoming March, North Korea's response is drawing attention.

The Workers' Party organ, Rodong Sinmun, stated on the 15th, "The patriotic cause and Juche revolutionary cause, in which (Kim Jong-il) General's whole life is embedded, are being firmly inherited under the leadership of Comrade Kim Jong-un and are steadily advancing to a higher stage." This emphasized loyalty passing from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un on the eve of the 81st anniversary of Gwangmyeongseongjeol.

North Korea Opens Central Art Exhibition Celebrating the 81st Anniversary of Kim Jong-il's Birthday
[Image Source=Yonhap News]

It also mentioned, "The General's courage, guts, and self-sacrificing dedication, which overcame all obstacles and difficulties and fortified the country's defense power like an iron wall, elevated the homeland to a world-class military power and nuclear state, and brought successive victories in the socialist defense war," highly appreciating North Korea's focus on nuclear weapons development despite economic difficulties during Kim Jong-il's era.

In addition, North Korea is holding various commemorative events such as oratory meetings, cooking skill contests, celebratory gatherings, and photo exhibitions. Compared to last year's 80th anniversary celebrations, the level is subdued. Also, having already held a large-scale military parade on the 8th and with a party plenary meeting scheduled for late this month focusing solely on agricultural issues, this Gwangmyeongseongjeol is expected to pass mainly as a time for mourning and solidarity.

However, considering past precedents where North Korea conducted military provocations around Gwangmyeongseongjeol, there are also views that military movements will resume soon. North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on February 12, 2013, which was the first nuclear test since Kim Jong-un took power. On February 12, 2017, it also conducted the first test launch of the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) 'Pukguksong-2.'

New Solid ICBM Presumed Missile Appears at North Korean Military Parade [Image Source=Yonhap News]

Most importantly, in the upcoming March, the annual South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise 'Freedom Shield (FS)' including large-scale field training exercises (FTX) is scheduled. Since North Korea has claimed the South Korea-U.S. exercises are 'preparations for invasion,' if it resumes provocations, it is highly likely to occur around this period. There is also speculation that it may conduct a test launch of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-estimated weapon revealed at this recent military parade.

Jung Sung-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute, analyzed, "Since the military parade was held grandly and a plenary meeting is imminent amid worsening economic difficulties, it is not considered the right time for North Korea to create a new event immediately. However, it is possible that North Korea will use the deployment of U.S. strategic assets, which it condemns as 'nuclear war exercises,' as a pretext to launch missiles in earnest in line with the March South Korea-U.S. joint exercises."

If North Korea uses the timing of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as a justification for provocations, it is expected that China and Russia, which have argued the 'U.S. responsibility theory' at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), will also easily protect North Korea. Due to the frequent use of veto power by China and Russia limiting additional sanctions resolutions against North Korea, the U.S. and others are pushing for a presidential statement, but this too has made little progress due to the non-cooperation of these two countries.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.