If a New Party by Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yeon Emerges under the Multi-Member District System...

Multiparty System Structure, Possibility of Change in Yeong-Honam General Election Landscape
18th General Election Yeongnam Region Pro-Park Alliance Surge
20th General Election Honam Region People's Party Surge

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The key point in the controversy over the introduction of the multi-member constituency system is the change in the general election landscape due to the emergence of new parties. The multi-member constituency system is characterized by electing at least the top two candidates in a district. This factor increases the possibility of a multi-party system.

In fact, in the 12th general election in 1985, six parties won district seats. The 12th general election was the most recent election held under the multi-member constituency system. The multi-member constituency system exerts a stronger centrifugal force toward a multi-party system rather than a centripetal force toward a two-party system.

To introduce the multi-member constituency system, the Public Official Election Act must first be amended. The leadership of both ruling and opposition parties is placing weight on cautious opinions. On the 5th, Jeong Jin-seok, Emergency Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, pointed out in a post on social media (SNS) that “(In Japan) while implementing the multi-member constituency system, factional politics within the party intensified over nomination rights.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, since President Yoon Seok-yeol stated that “it is necessary to consider ways to strengthen (people’s) representation through the multi-member constituency system,” there is a possibility that momentum for promotion will build. If the system passes the National Assembly and the 22nd general election next April is held under the multi-member constituency system, the current party structure is expected to change.

The focus of interest is political realignment. In the People Power Party, the possibility of a new party centered on former leader Lee Jun-seok is attracting attention. The Democratic Party is receiving interest in political realignment centered on former leader Lee Nak-yeon. Both former leaders Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yeon have drawn a line against founding new parties, but the situation could change if the multi-member constituency system is introduced. Looking at past general election results, the destructive power of new parties in the Yeongnam and Honam regions is considerable.

Analyzing past general election results from the National Election Commission on the 6th, the pro-Park new party caused a stir in the Yeongnam region in the 18th general election in 2008. At that time, the Grand National Party faced controversy over nomination purges, and many pro-Park Geun-hye candidates ran as members of the pro-Park alliance or as pro-Park independents.

The pro-Park alliance and pro-Park independent candidates won in 6 out of 18 districts in Busan. In Daegu, they won in 4 out of 12 districts. The Grand National Party took a direct hit in Yeongnam, which was its political stronghold. Contrary to expectations of a landslide victory, it barely secured a majority of seats.

In the 20th general election in 2016, the People's Party wave blew strongly centered on Honam. The People's Party, launched around politicians Ahn Cheol-soo and Park Ji-won, swept all 8 districts in Gwangju. In Jeonnam, it took 8 out of 10 seats, and in Jeonbuk, 7 out of 10 seats. Although the Democratic Party became the largest party in the National Assembly based on a landslide victory in the metropolitan area, failing to defend its political stronghold was a painful result.

A scenario in which both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party suffer a blow from a third party in Yeongnam and Honam in the 22nd general election is one they both dread. However, depending on political trends, situations similar to the 18th or 20th general elections could easily arise.

For a new party based in Yeongnam and Honam to land smoothly, there is a prerequisite. Like in the 18th general election, controversy over nomination purges must cause cracks within the party and lead to incumbent lawmakers leaving the party. Public opinion of “unfair nominations” must form in political strongholds of the People Power Party and the Democratic Party, such as Busan, Daegu, and Gwangju. Furthermore, influential politicians who were excluded from nominations must join the new party to create a synergy effect.

Another key to the possibility of change toward a multi-party system is the attitude change of forces pushing for a third party. Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, “The people have always demanded a multi-party system, but the problem is that third or fourth parties, or small parties, have too easily surrendered to the major parties,” adding, “Those who want to form a third party need to have patience and an attitude focused on achieving results.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.