'This Time Is Different'... Increased Likelihood of Rejection for No Woong-rae's Arrest Motion

Growing Backlash Against Democratic Party's Prosecutor Investigation
No Major Elections Next Year, So Public Opinion Pressure Is Relatively Low
People Power Party May Strategically Vote Against to Create 'Bulletproof' Image for Democratic Party

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Attention is focused on whether the arrest motion against Democratic Party lawmaker Roh Woong-rae can pass the "plenary session threshold" after being submitted to the National Assembly. Within the Democratic Party, there is a noticeable current of opposition, calling the series of prosecution investigations including that of Rep. Roh "excessive investigations," leading to significant speculation that the arrest motion might be rejected, unlike before. Moreover, there are even forecasts that the ruling People Power Party may strategically support the rejection of the arrest motion to portray the Democratic Party as "shielded."

On the 15th, a plenary session is scheduled at the National Assembly to handle next year's budget bill. Once the Ministry of Justice submits the arrest motion, it must be processed within 72 hours after being reported at the first plenary session following a 24-hour interval. Accordingly, a plenary vote on Rep. Roh's arrest motion is inevitable this week.

The arrest motion is passed by a majority vote with a quorum of more than half of the members present. The Democratic Party holds 169 lawmakers, well over the majority, giving it a decisive role in the approval or rejection of the motion. In the 21st National Assembly, all three arrest motions (against lawmakers Jeong Jeong-soon, Lee Sang-jik, and Jeong Chan-min) were passed due to concerns about a "shielded National Assembly" backlash, but this time is different. Within the Democratic Party, there is a widespread perception that the prosecution is conducting biased and excessive investigations amid comprehensive probes into the Moon Jae-in administration and Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung. With no major elections until next year, the party is relatively free from public backlash.

While there has not always been sympathy whenever an arrest motion against a lawmaker was submitted, this time there is strong resentment within the party against the prosecution's investigation. After a policy coordination meeting on the day, Democratic Party floor spokesperson Lee Soo-jin told reporters regarding Rep. Roh's arrest motion, "Looking into the details, it seems there may have been one-sided evidence fabrication and defamation by the prosecution as claimed by the lawmaker himself, and there appear to be unjust aspects." Democratic Party Supreme Council member Go Min-jung also said on MBC Radio, "It is difficult to predict," but added, "Someone has to stop the prosecution's reckless continuation of these arrest investigations, and according to the separation of powers, ultimately the legislative branch has the duty to stop it."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Five-term veteran Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Min-seok said on BBS Radio the previous day, "This case almost overlaps with the 2014 incident when three senior opposition lawmakers Kim Jae-yoon, Shin Gye-ryun, and Shin Hak-yong were arrested," and added, "I will persuade lawmakers that the case of Rep. Roh is a 'deja vu'." Ahn has previously expressed the view that the late lawmaker Kim Jae-yoon's death was an "unjust death" caused by a planned investigation. His persuasion is interpreted as a sign that he will actively work to save Rep. Roh.

There are also speculations that the People Power Party could contribute to the rejection of the arrest motion. Democratic Party lawmaker Cho Eung-cheon said on CBS Radio, "There is talk that when the actual vote takes place, the ruling party (People Power Party) lawmakers will overwhelmingly vote against (the arrest motion)," and introduced, "The ruling party may try to label the Democratic Party with a 'shield' image." This suggests that due to a 'different dreams under the same roof' situation between some Democratic Party and People Power Party lawmakers, the 21st National Assembly could see the first case of an arrest motion being rejected.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.