Chinese Academy of Social Sciences "China's Economic Growth Rate Expected to Reach 5.1% Next Year... Clear Recovery Trend"

Morgan Stanley Also Raises China's Economic Growth Rate to 5.4%

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences announced that it forecasts China's economic growth rate to be 5.1% next year. This analysis is based on the base effect from this year's overall economic sluggishness and the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown measures, expecting a recovery to a growth rate in the 5% range. Global investment firm Morgan Stanley also revised its forecast for China's economic growth rate next year upward from 5.0% to 5.4%.

According to local Chinese media such as Jeil Jaegyeong on the 14th, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences stated in its economic blue book published the previous day, "We forecast the economic growth rate for next year to be 5.1%. Due to the base effect from this year's low economic growth rate and increased consumption following optimized epidemic prevention measures, the Chinese economy will show a clear recovery trend," adding, "We set the economic growth target for next year at over 5%, and will strive to achieve even higher growth during the actual implementation process."

The Academy further advised, "To this end, it is necessary to boost the confidence of market participants, improve the development environment for private enterprises, and provide support such as tax reductions for small and medium-sized enterprises," and warned, "We must prevent excessive downturns in the real estate industry and the negative impacts, losses, and credit downgrades of companies caused by declines in financial asset prices from becoming factors that hinder economic growth."

Se Pujan, editor of the economic blue book and former president of the Academy, diagnosed, "Although the Chinese economy has faced difficulties due to rapidly changing global circumstances, inflation, the Ukraine crisis, US interest rate hikes, and internal factors such as the spread of COVID-19, overall it is showing a V-shaped rebound trend."

Global investment firm Morgan Stanley also announced in a report released on the 13th that, reflecting the effective end of China's 'Zero COVID' policy and the expectation of a swift return to normal life, it has revised its forecast for China's economic growth rate next year upward from 5.0% to 5.4%.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government set this year's economic growth target at 5.5%, but due to the economic shock caused by the spread of COVID-19 and lockdowns in major cities such as Shanghai, there are views that achieving the target will be difficult, and foreign institutions and experts expect it to remain at around 3.2%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.