[Global Issue+] Nepal General Election Turned Proxy War Between China and India... Will Political Instability Persist?

No Single Majority Party... Coalition Shifts
Ongoing Conflicts Among Monarchist Restoration, Pro-China, and Pro-India Factions

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Global attention is focused on the results of Nepal's general election, located between the border areas of China and India. In this election, the ruling Nepali Congress (NC), classified as pro-India, maintained its first place, but it is expected to be impossible to achieve an outright majority, raising prospects of continued political instability.

Amid this, the infiltration of Chinese and Indian forces is intensifying, leading to analyses that Nepal's general election is taking on the characteristics of a proxy war between the two major powers. With the border dispute between China and India escalating and India joining the U.S.-led military coalition QUAD aimed at containing China, concerns are also being raised that Nepal's political instability could expand into a geopolitical power struggle between the great powers.

No outright majority, political instability continues... voter turnout also sharply declines

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to Foreign Policy magazine on the 3rd (local time), in Nepal's general election, the current ruling party and pro-India NC ranked first, while the pro-China opposition party, the Unified Marxist-Leninist Nepal Communist Party (CPN-UML), came in second. Neither party achieved an outright majority, so negotiations with smaller parties to form a coalition government are ongoing.

Even when combining the expected seats of the Maoist Central Nepal Communist Party (CPN-MC), which agreed to form a coalition with NC, it is anticipated that the ruling NC party will find it difficult to secure a majority, raising concerns that political instability will persist for a long time. With the influence of the great powers India and China behind the NC and CPN-UML parties, the proxy war between the two major powers is expected to continue.

The election itself was held on the 21st, but the final results have yet to be announced. Due to Nepal's mountainous terrain and inadequate road and communication infrastructure, vote counting has been delayed, and incidents such as ballot box seizures have further slowed the tallying process.

As political instability prolongs, public sentiment has worsened significantly. Voter turnout in this Nepal general election was only 61%, a sharp drop of more than 10% compared to 77% in the 2013 general election and 78% in 2017. This is analyzed to be due to growing public disillusionment with politics amid disputes between pro-China and pro-India parties that have hindered the implementation of key policies, coupled with worsening inflation and increasing hardships in people's livelihoods.

Continued power struggles among monarchist restoration, pro-China, and pro-India forces

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

As Nepal's political instability prolongs, concerns are emerging that a de facto civil war similar to the early 2000s could reoccur. Nepal experienced severe political turmoil after the assassination of the widely respected former King Birendra in 2001 and the accession of the current King Gyanendra.

Ultimately, in 2007, after a long civil war, the monarchy was abolished, but political instability deepened further. The Nepal Communist Party, backed by China, expanded its influence, while the Indian government supported the current ruling NC party in opposition, perpetuating the chaos. Additionally, armed groups advocating for monarchist restoration have emerged, and clashes among these militias continue in various regions outside the capital Kathmandu and central areas.

In this situation, the April 2015 Nepal earthquake destroyed already insufficient infrastructure, and the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the key tourism industry, further worsening public sentiment.

Ultimately, attracting large-scale foreign investment is essential to resolve the hardships faced by the people. Even if the new Nepalese coalition government claims to pursue neutral diplomacy, it will inevitably need to strengthen relations with either China or India to receive economic support. Especially with China promising massive economic aid and expanding its influence, concerns are growing that Nepal's independence may weaken in the future.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.