North Korea Begins 'Winter Training' Today... At a Crossroads Between Assessment or Further Provocation

Traditional 'Winter Training' Conducted Every December
Possibility of Additional Provocations Under the Pretext of 'Training'
Speculation That the Situation May Shift with Year-End Review

Kim Jong-un Oversees Tactical Nuclear Unit Military Training in September
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] Attention is focused on whether changes will occur in the situation on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea enters its 'winter training' period. While North Korea has been conducting unprecedented military demonstrations this year, there is speculation that it may use 'training' as a pretext for additional provocations. At the same time, it is also expected to focus on internal unity and achieving results as it marks the 10th year of Kim Jong-un's rule at the end of the year.

According to North Korean sources and related media on the 1st, North Korea conducted an inspection of the training readiness of all military units the day before and is expected to begin full-scale winter training starting today.

North Korea has launched 63 missiles this year, carrying out unprecedented provocations. Having previously defined the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as 'pre-provocations' and conducted military demonstrations in response, there is a possibility that North Korea will use 'winter training' as an excuse for further provocations. Earlier, North Korea launched medium- and short-range ballistic missiles five times in January this year while winter training was underway.

In a recent report, An Je-no, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, and others analyzed, "By utilizing December, the traditional period for North Korea's 'winter training,' they may emphasize that their artillery firing or missile launches are training rather than provocations, while seeking the optimal timing for a nuclear test again. They are expected to continue strengthening provocations next year as they did this year."

Missile Hwasong-17 emerging from the hangar [Image source=Yonhap News]

Some speculate that North Korea has entered a phase of wrapping up defense projects in light of the recent emphasis on year-end settlement. The fact that propaganda media, including Rodong Sinmun, have been encouraging 'achievements' daily is cited as background.

North Korea's year-end and New Year plans, revealed by the Korean Central News Agency on the same day, are also evaluated as focusing on 'settlement.' The agency reported that a Political Bureau meeting chaired by General Secretary Kim was held at the Party Central Committee headquarters the day before, and it was decided to convene a plenary meeting later this month. The upcoming plenary meeting is expected to be a venue for North Korea to settle this year's work and decide the direction of state governance for next year.

At the meeting, General Secretary Kim emphasized, "In order to vigorously push forward the vast tasks of the new year, it is extremely important to accurately analyze the experiences and lessons accumulated during the year's struggles in each sector and innovatively identify problems that can be solved with our potential to properly finalize next year's plans."

Considering that the New Year's address has been replaced by reports at the Party plenary meetings over the past three years, Kim's remarks ahead of the meeting are seen as emphasizing the 'five-year economic development plan' he is promoting. Especially since next year is a meaningful year for the North, marking the '75th anniversary of the founding of the Republic' and the '70th anniversary of the victory in the Fatherland Liberation War (Korean War),' there is also a possibility that new strategies toward South Korea and the U.S. will be unveiled.

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, analyzed, "Unless there are changes in the political and military environment surrounding the Korean Peninsula, confrontation between South and North Korea and between North Korea and the U.S. is expected to continue next year. However, since the maximum task in defense was achieved this year with the successful launch of an ICBM at the end of the year, next year they are likely to focus more on producing results in the defense sector as well as in the five-year plan for the people's livelihood sector."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.