Why Did North Korea Fire 'Scrap Metal Missiles' into the Waters off Sokcho?

'Russian Language Found on NLL Infringing North Korean Missile
Surface-to-Air Fired on Typical Ballistic Trajectory
Military Judges Intentional South Targeting by Inclined Launch
"Range 300km... Interception Fully Possible"'

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] The missile North Korea fired across the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea for the first time since the division was an SA-5 missile developed 60 years ago. It is an old model using liquid fuel, and considering that the body retrieved from the sea bore Russian inscriptions, it is presumed to be a weapon North Korea acquired during the Soviet era.

However, because the missile was launched differently from its original purpose, it was detected as a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Some analysts suggest this was intended to confuse our military's interception system. While military authorities keep various possibilities open regarding North Korea's intent, they strongly condemned it as a "deliberate provocation."

The Missile That Surprised Ulleungdo Had 'Russian Inscriptions'

On the 9th, the Ministry of National Defense is revealing an object presumed to be debris from a North Korean missile. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The Ministry of National Defense revealed that after recovering and analyzing the missile debris fired by North Korea south of the East Sea NLL on the 2nd, it was identified as an SA-5 missile. Earlier, when the missile fell into the sea off Sokcho, the navy was deployed to search the nearby waters.

The debris recovered by the military was the rear fuselage of an SA-5 missile, measuring approximately 3 meters in length, 2 meters in width, and 0.8 meters in diameter. Four main wings were attached, and inside the fuselage, remnants of liquid fuel tanks, engine parts, and nozzles were found.

While the equipment surface was covered with Russian inscriptions, no Korean (Hangul) was found. This suggests North Korea imported either finished products or parts from Russia. However, it is unclear whether North Korea directly imported the missile from Russia or acquired it from a third country and then modified it domestically.

A military official explained, "North Korea has operated various weapons developed by the former Soviet Union," adding, "It is difficult to definitively say that the missile fired this time is Russian-made."

SA-5 Missile... "An Old Model Developed in the 1960s"

Rear section of a North Korean SA-5 missile body recovered from the East Sea [Photo provided by the Ministry of National Defense]

The SA-5 missile is also known by its Russian name, 'S-200.' Developed by the former Soviet Union in the 1960s, it is a surface-to-air missile with a full length of 10.7 meters and a warhead weight of 217 kg. North Korea is known to have imported this missile in the past and extended its range through domestic modifications. It is currently densely deployed around the Pyongyang area to block access by South Korean and U.S. air forces.

Compared to the liquid-fueled Scud missile, it produces about 70-80% of the thrust. A distinguishing feature is that thrust adjustment is possible after launch. Scud-series missiles control range by cutting off fuel, but the SA-5 missile, due to its surface-to-air nature, is equipped with thrust control, allowing the thrust level to be changed during engagement.

The SA-5 and other surface-to-air missiles fly toward their targets by exchanging signals with ground radar systems. When launched as intended for surface-to-air use, they can shoot down aircraft flying at altitudes up to 40 km. If the missile misses the target or fails its mission, it is designed to self-destruct automatically in the air.

However, this SA-5 missile had no significant target in the launch area's airspace and did not self-destruct. It flew normally across the NLL into South Korean territorial waters before falling. Notably, the SA-5 missile can also be used as a surface-to-surface missile. When launched as surface-to-surface, its maximum range reaches 300 km, meaning it can strike central regions of South Korea.

Did North Korea Intend to Confuse Military Detection and Interception Systems?

Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea [Photo by Yonhap News]

The SA-5 missile fired by North Korea was detected flying about 190 km with a peak altitude of approximately 100 km, falling 57 km east of Sokcho at sea. The military initially estimated it as an SRBM based on specifications, but North Korea launched a surface-to-air missile as a surface-to-surface missile, causing it to follow a ballistic missile's parabolic trajectory. Various analyses have emerged regarding this intent.

First, it is suggested that North Korea employed a deception tactic to confuse our military's detection and interception systems. However, the military detected the entire flight trajectory of the missile, although it initially could not identify the model. The fact that the trajectory was tracked indicates the missile was neither highly threatening nor effective.

Another analysis suggests it was an attempt to "use up inventory." North Korea, accelerating the development of various strategic weapons, may have tried to deplete old stock while developing new warheads. However, until the mass launch of 35 missiles during the joint South Korea-U.S. air exercise Vigilant Storm, there was no precedent this year of old missiles being detected.

If it was not merely to use up inventory, some speculate North Korea's missile stock is running low. Launching an old missile developed nearly 60 years ago, and using it differently as a surface-to-surface missile, greatly reduces its power and tactical significance. Given that over 80 new solid-fuel missiles have been indiscriminately launched this year, the stock may have rapidly diminished in the process.

Military: 'North Korea's Intent' Was a "Clearly Deliberate Provocation"

North Korean ballistic missile [Image source=Yonhap News]

What is clear is that North Korea fired the SA-5 missile at a downward angle aimed southward. If it had been fired in another direction, it would have curved toward the south, but such flight is impossible for this missile, so it is evaluated as an "intentional NLL violation."

Moreover, if it had been launched as a surface-to-air missile, signals exchanged between North Korea's fire control radar and the missile would have been detected by our surveillance and reconnaissance assets, but no such evidence was found, according to the military. The missile did not self-destruct at a certain point as it should have if there was no engagement or if it passed by, further proving it was a deliberate provocation.

Military authorities keep various possibilities open regarding North Korea's intent in firing the "scrap missile," but repeatedly condemned it as a clear deliberate provocation. They emphasized that regardless of the missile type or launch method, since it ultimately showed a "short-range ballistic missile trajectory," interception was fully possible.

However, there are criticisms that the military's initial misjudgment revealed vulnerabilities in the air defense network against North Korea.

Professor Jang Young-geun of Korea Aerospace University, considered the top civilian missile expert, analyzed, "North Korea may have intended to convert an expired surface-to-air missile into a surface-to-surface missile for attacks against the South and tested it this time. In reality, when striking South Korea, they may mix old warheads among new missiles equipped with tactical nuclear weapons to confuse the air defense system."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.