China's Possible Visit to North Korea Within the Year... "Diplomatic Efforts Must Be Maximized to Deter North Korean Provocations"

Institute for Unification Studies 'China Party Congress and Its Implications for the Korean Peninsula'
"Strategic Communication with China Must Be Strengthened to Deter North Korean Provocations"

Chinese President Xi Jinping [Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] As Chinese President Xi Jinping enters his 'third term,' there are suggestions that the government should strengthen strategic communication with China to deter North Korean provocations. In particular, with the possibility of a Chinese Communist Party delegation visiting North Korea within the year, there is an analysis that preparations are needed for the strengthening of North Korea-China relations.

Lee Jae-yeon and Hwang Tae-yeon, associate researchers at the Peace Research Division of the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated in their report titled "The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and Its Implications for the Korean Peninsula" on the 27th, "Preparations are necessary in response to the strengthening of North Korea-China relations," adding, "Given the current situation where U.S.-China strategic competition has intensified significantly compared to 2017, China urgently needs to secure an ally in North Korea, so the possibility of China joining additional sanctions against North Korea after its 7th nuclear test is very low."

In a situation where the honeymoon relationship between North Korea and China is solidifying, rather than directly pressuring North Korea over major provocations such as nuclear tests, China is likely to request restraint from involved parties under the general stance of 'peace, stability, and political resolution through dialogue,' and is expected to oppose additional sanctions.

Furthermore, the two researchers predicted, "Although COVID-19 remains a variable, following precedent, the Chinese side is expected to visit North Korea in November or at the latest December, led by a member of the Communist Party Politburo, deliver a personal letter from Xi Jinping, and explain the results of the 20th Party Congress to the North Korean side."

They explained that while making strategic efforts to check the strengthening of North Korea-China relations and secure China's support for additional sanctions against North Korea, diplomatic efforts should be concentrated on devising ways for China to persuade North Korea not to conduct its 7th nuclear test through the North Korea-China channel.

The research team also projected that Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be promoted as the successor to Politburo member Yang Jiechi to oversee foreign policy, emphasizing the need to review the approaches Wang Yi has proposed regarding the Korean Peninsula.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi has consistently advocated for the "double suspension" (the suspension of North Korea's nuclear and missile tests and the suspension of large-scale U.S.-South Korea military exercises) and "parallel tracks" (simultaneous pursuit of denuclearization and transition to a peace regime). However, the research team pointed out that since both U.S.-North Korea and South-North-U.S. negotiations are currently stalled, the feasibility of these approaches is low, and new solutions need to be proposed.

The research team advised, "Strategic communication should be strengthened through South Korea-China cooperation to deter North Korean provocations," adding, "In particular, it is necessary to develop the agenda emphasized by China?peace, stability, and dialogue on the Korean Peninsula?and prepare logical arguments and negotiation cards that can enable China to persuade North Korea not to conduct additional nuclear tests."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.